First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) Stock Forecast, Price Target & Predictions
FWRG Stock Forecast
First Watch Restaurant Group stock forecast is as follows: an average price target of $21.17 (represents a 23.30% upside from FWRG’s last price of $17.17) and a rating consensus of 'Buy', based on 8 wall street analysts offering a 1-year stock forecast.
FWRG Price Target
The average price target for First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) is $21.17 based on 1-year price targets from 8 Wall Street analysts in the past 3 months, with a price target range of $28.00 to $17.00. This represents a potential 23.30% upside from FWRG's last price of $17.17.
FWRG Analyst Ratings
According to 8 Wall Street analysts, First Watch Restaurant Group's rating consensus is 'Buy'. The analyst rating breakdown for FWRG stock is 1 'Strong Buy' (12.50%), 7 'Buy' (87.50%), 0 'Hold' (0.00%), 0 'Sell' (0.00%), and 0 'Strong Sell' (0.00%).
First Watch Restaurant Group Price Target by Analyst
| Date | Analyst | Company | Price Target | Price when Published | Price Target/Price when Published | Price Target/Last Closing Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2024 | Brian Mullan | Piper Sandler | $23.00 | $17.66 | 30.24% | 33.95% |
| Oct 16, 2024 | Jim Salera | Stephens | $20.00 | $14.97 | 33.60% | 16.48% |
| Jul 02, 2024 | Chris O'Cull | Stifel Nicolaus | $18.00 | $16.95 | 6.19% | 4.83% |
| May 07, 2024 | Andy Barish | Jefferies | $28.00 | $21.85 | 28.15% | 63.08% |
| Jan 05, 2023 | - | Barclays | $17.00 | $13.48 | 26.11% | -0.99% |
| Aug 10, 2022 | - | Goldman Sachs | $21.00 | $17.94 | 17.06% | 22.31% |
| Apr 25, 2022 | - | Barclays | $16.00 | $12.27 | 30.40% | -6.81% |
The latest First Watch Restaurant Group stock forecast, released on Nov 11, 2024 by Brian Mullan from Piper Sandler, set a price target of $23.00, which represents a 30.24% increase from the stock price at the time of the forecast ($17.66), and a 33.95% increase from FWRG last price ($17.17).
First Watch Restaurant Group Price Target by Period
| 1M | 3M | 12M | |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Anlaysts | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Avg Price Target | $23.00 | $21.50 | $22.25 |
| Last Closing Price | $17.17 | $17.17 | $17.17 |
| Upside/Downside | 33.95% | 25.22% | 29.59% |
In the current month, the average price target of First Watch Restaurant Group stock is $23.00, according to 1 Wall Street analyst offering twelve months forecast. The average price target represents a 33.95% increase as opposed to First Watch Restaurant Group's last price of $17.17. This month's average price target is up 6.98% compared to last quarter, and up 3.37% compared to last year.
Analyst Ratings Upgrades/Downgrades
| Date | Company | Previous Rating | New Rating | Rating Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2024 | Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Hold |
| Oct 16, 2024 | Stephens | - | Overweight | Initialise |
| Oct 04, 2024 | Cowen & Co. | Underperform | Underperform | Hold |
| Oct 04, 2024 | Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Hold |
| Aug 27, 2024 | Cowen & Co. | Buy | Buy | Hold |
| Aug 27, 2024 | Benchmark | - | Buy | Initialise |
| Jun 13, 2024 | Cowen & Co. | Hold | Hold | Hold |
| May 08, 2024 | Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Market Perform | Hold |
| May 07, 2024 | Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Hold |
| Oct 18, 2023 | Raymond James | - | Strong Buy | Upgrade |
First Watch Restaurant Group's last stock rating was published by Piper Sandler on Nov 11, 2024. The company gave FWRG a "Overweight" rating, the same as its previous rate.
First Watch Restaurant Group Financial Forecast
First Watch Restaurant Group Revenue Forecast
| Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jun 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $244.63M | $219.21M | $216.30M | $211.41M | $185.75M | $186.85M | $184.45M | $173.11M | $86.81M | $157.44M |
| Avg Forecast | $322.65M | $321.35M | $330.65M | $315.45M | $301.23M | $258.26M | $295.38M | $281.39M | $263.01M | $256.17M | $257.65M | $245.03M | $237.20M | $216.54M | $210.65M | $207.78M | $186.93M | $181.13M | $174.61M | $168.74M | $159.84M | $151.58M |
| High Forecast | $338.87M | $337.50M | $347.27M | $331.31M | $316.38M | $271.24M | $310.23M | $285.82M | $282.65M | $258.26M | $257.65M | $245.03M | $239.47M | $216.54M | $221.24M | $218.23M | $196.33M | $181.13M | $174.61M | $168.74M | $159.84M | $151.58M |
| Low Forecast | $313.96M | $312.69M | $321.74M | $306.95M | $293.12M | $251.30M | $287.42M | $276.10M | $253.19M | $254.08M | $257.65M | $245.03M | $232.12M | $216.54M | $204.97M | $202.18M | $181.89M | $181.13M | $174.61M | $168.74M | $159.84M | $151.58M |
| # Analysts | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.03% | 1.01% | 1.03% | 1.02% | 0.99% | 1.03% | 1.06% | 1.03% | 0.54% | 1.04% |
First Watch Restaurant Group's average Quarter revenue forecast for Mar 24 based on 3 analysts is $245.03M, with a low forecast of $245.03M, and a high forecast of $245.03M. FWRG's average Quarter revenue forecast represents a 0.16% increase compared to the company's last Quarter revenue of $244.63M (Dec 23).
First Watch Restaurant Group EBITDA Forecast
| Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jun 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| EBITDA | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $21.35M | $19.67M | $13.33M | $25.33M | $11.81M | $13.17M | $13.72M | $16.48M | $-18.53M | $15.57M |
| Avg Forecast | $16.88M | $16.81M | $17.30M | $16.51M | $15.76M | $13.51M | $15.46M | $14.72M | $13.76M | $13.40M | $13.48M | $12.82M | $12.41M | $11.33M | $11.02M | $10.87M | $9.78M | $9.97M | $9.61M | $7.10M | $8.80M | $8.35M |
| High Forecast | $17.73M | $17.66M | $18.17M | $17.34M | $16.55M | $14.19M | $16.23M | $14.96M | $14.79M | $13.51M | $13.48M | $12.82M | $12.53M | $11.33M | $11.58M | $11.42M | $10.27M | $9.97M | $9.61M | $8.53M | $8.80M | $8.35M |
| Low Forecast | $16.43M | $16.36M | $16.84M | $16.06M | $15.34M | $13.15M | $15.04M | $14.45M | $13.25M | $13.29M | $13.48M | $12.82M | $12.15M | $11.33M | $10.73M | $10.58M | $9.52M | $9.97M | $9.61M | $5.68M | $8.80M | $8.35M |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.72% | 1.74% | 1.21% | 2.33% | 1.21% | 1.32% | 1.43% | 2.32% | -2.11% | 1.87% |
3 analysts predict FWRG's average Quarter EBITDA for Mar 24 to be $12.82M, with a high of $12.82M and a low of $12.82M. This is -39.95% lower than First Watch Restaurant Group's previous annual EBITDA (Dec 23) of $21.35M.
First Watch Restaurant Group Net Income Forecast
| Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jun 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Net Income | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $2.65M | $5.42M | $7.96M | $9.36M | $-486.00K | $46.00K | $2.71M | $4.64M | $13.21M | $783.00K |
| Avg Forecast | $5.57M | $8.04M | $16.08M | $9.28M | $2.89M | $4.25M | $11.98M | $6.90M | $206.15K | $2.77M | $7.58M | $6.00M | $2.58M | $2.72M | $4.88M | $5.41M | $2.06M | $2.41M | $2.53M | $2.04M | $-5.49M | $-397.46K |
| High Forecast | $5.93M | $8.57M | $17.13M | $9.88M | $3.08M | $4.53M | $12.76M | $8.05M | $219.62K | $2.87M | $7.59M | $6.00M | $3.87M | $2.78M | $5.20M | $5.76M | $2.19M | $2.41M | $2.53M | $2.45M | $-5.49M | $-397.46K |
| Low Forecast | $5.37M | $7.76M | $15.52M | $8.95M | $2.79M | $4.10M | $11.56M | $6.33M | $198.93K | $2.68M | $7.56M | $6.00M | $645.71K | $2.65M | $4.71M | $5.22M | $1.98M | $2.41M | $2.53M | $1.63M | $-5.49M | $-397.46K |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.03% | 1.99% | 1.63% | 1.73% | -0.24% | 0.02% | 1.07% | 2.27% | -2.40% | -1.97% |
First Watch Restaurant Group's average Quarter net income forecast for Mar 24 is $6.00M, with a range of $6.00M to $6.00M. FWRG's average Quarter net income forecast represents a 126.54% increase compared to the company's last Quarter net income of $2.65M (Dec 23).
First Watch Restaurant Group SG&A Forecast
| Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jun 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| SG&A | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $29.95M | $25.18M | $25.28M | $22.70M | $21.77M | $21.69M | $21.94M | $19.56M | $42.02M | $17.02M |
| Avg Forecast | $39.51M | $39.35M | $40.49M | $38.63M | $36.89M | $31.63M | $36.17M | $34.46M | $32.21M | $31.37M | $31.55M | $30.01M | $29.05M | $26.52M | $25.80M | $25.45M | $22.89M | $22.18M | $21.38M | $8.61M | $19.57M | $18.56M |
| High Forecast | $41.50M | $41.33M | $42.53M | $40.57M | $38.74M | $33.22M | $37.99M | $35.00M | $34.61M | $31.63M | $31.55M | $30.01M | $29.33M | $26.52M | $27.09M | $26.72M | $24.04M | $22.18M | $21.38M | $10.33M | $19.57M | $18.56M |
| Low Forecast | $38.45M | $38.29M | $39.40M | $37.59M | $35.90M | $30.77M | $35.20M | $33.81M | $31.01M | $31.11M | $31.55M | $30.01M | $28.43M | $26.52M | $25.10M | $24.76M | $22.27M | $22.18M | $21.38M | $6.89M | $19.57M | $18.56M |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.03% | 0.95% | 0.98% | 0.89% | 0.95% | 0.98% | 1.03% | 2.27% | 2.15% | 0.92% |
First Watch Restaurant Group's average Quarter SG&A projection for Mar 24 is $30.01M, based on 3 Wall Street analysts, with a range of $30.01M to $30.01M. The forecast indicates a 0.18% rise compared to FWRG last annual SG&A of $29.95M (Dec 23).
First Watch Restaurant Group EPS Forecast
| Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jun 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| EPS | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0.09 | $0.13 | $0.16 | $-0.01 | - | $0.05 | $0.08 | $0.23 | $0.01 |
| Avg Forecast | $0.09 | $0.13 | $0.26 | $0.15 | $0.05 | $0.07 | $0.19 | $0.11 | - | $0.04 | $0.12 | $0.10 | $0.04 | $0.04 | $0.08 | $0.09 | $0.03 | $0.04 | $0.04 | $0.05 | $-0.09 | $-0.01 |
| High Forecast | $0.10 | $0.14 | $0.28 | $0.16 | $0.05 | $0.07 | $0.21 | $0.13 | - | $0.05 | $0.12 | $0.10 | $0.06 | $0.04 | $0.08 | $0.09 | $0.04 | $0.04 | $0.04 | $0.05 | $-0.09 | $-0.01 |
| Low Forecast | $0.09 | $0.13 | $0.25 | $0.14 | $0.05 | $0.07 | $0.19 | $0.10 | - | $0.04 | $0.12 | $0.10 | $0.01 | $0.04 | $0.08 | $0.08 | $0.03 | $0.04 | $0.04 | $0.05 | $-0.09 | $-0.01 |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2.05% | 1.65% | 1.83% | -0.25% | 0.02% | 1.23% | 1.60% | -2.62% | -2.14% |
According to 6 Wall Street analysts, First Watch Restaurant Group's projected average Quarter EPS for Dec 23 is $0.04, with a low estimate of $0.01 and a high estimate of $0.06. This represents a -53.60% decrease compared to FWRG previous annual EPS of $0.09 (Sep 23).
First Watch Restaurant Group Peer Comparison by Price Target
| Ticker | Company | Last Closing Price | Avg Price Target | Upside/Downside | Avg Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLMN | Bloomin' Brands | $12.56 | $23.57 | 87.66% | Hold |
| DIN | Dine Brands Global | $32.24 | $55.50 | 72.15% | Buy |
| PZZA | Papa John's | $47.15 | $75.00 | 59.07% | Buy |
| DENN | Denny's | $6.26 | $9.00 | 43.77% | Buy |
| FWRG | First Watch Restaurant Group | $17.17 | $21.17 | 23.30% | Buy |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants | $34.19 | $39.60 | 15.82% | Buy |
| CHUY | Chuy's | $37.48 | $39.25 | 4.72% | Hold |
| CAKE | Cheesecake Factory | $46.57 | $44.14 | -5.22% | Buy |
| EAT | Brinker | $122.13 | $69.10 | -43.42% | Hold |