XPO Logistics (XPO) Stock Forecast, Price Target & Predictions
XPO Stock Forecast
XPO Logistics stock forecast is as follows: an average price target of $120.91 (represents a -9.43% downside from XPO’s last price of $133.50) and a rating consensus of 'Buy', based on 17 wall street analysts offering a 1-year stock forecast.
XPO Price Target
The average price target for XPO Logistics (XPO) is $120.91 based on 1-year price targets from 17 Wall Street analysts in the past 3 months, with a price target range of $164.00 to $75.00. This represents a potential -9.43% downside from XPO's last price of $133.50.
XPO Analyst Ratings
According to 17 Wall Street analysts, XPO Logistics's rating consensus is 'Buy'. The analyst rating breakdown for XPO stock is 0 'Strong Buy' (0.00%), 16 'Buy' (94.12%), 0 'Hold' (0.00%), 1 'Sell' (5.88%), and 0 'Strong Sell' (0.00%).
XPO Logistics Price Target by Analyst
| Date | Analyst | Company | Price Target | Price when Published | Price Target/Price when Published | Price Target/Last Closing Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2024 | Jordan Alliger | Goldman Sachs | $150.00 | $133.99 | 11.95% | 12.36% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Ken Hoexter | Bank of America Securities | $152.00 | $133.99 | 13.44% | 13.86% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Fadi Chamoun | BMO Capital | $162.00 | $133.99 | 20.90% | 21.35% |
| Oct 21, 2024 | Bruce Chan | Stifel Nicolaus | $126.00 | $112.90 | 11.60% | -5.62% |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Bascome Majors | Susquehanna | $160.00 | $110.81 | 44.39% | 19.85% |
| Aug 16, 2024 | Fadi Chamoun | BMO Capital | $145.00 | $120.84 | 19.99% | 8.61% |
| Aug 05, 2024 | Bruce Chan | Stifel Nicolaus | $125.00 | $107.43 | 16.35% | -6.37% |
| Jun 27, 2024 | Brandon Oglenski | Barclays | $145.00 | $103.70 | 39.83% | 8.61% |
| Jun 25, 2024 | Jonathan Chappell | Evercore ISI | $124.00 | $105.39 | 17.66% | -7.12% |
| Jun 12, 2024 | Bascome Majors | Susquehanna | $145.00 | $107.04 | 35.46% | 8.61% |
The latest XPO Logistics stock forecast, released on Oct 30, 2024 by Jordan Alliger from Goldman Sachs, set a price target of $150.00, which represents a 11.95% increase from the stock price at the time of the forecast ($133.99), and a 12.36% increase from XPO last price ($133.50).
XPO Logistics Price Target by Period
| 1M | 3M | 12M | |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Anlaysts | 4 | 7 | 13 |
| Avg Price Target | $147.50 | $145.71 | $139.92 |
| Last Closing Price | $133.50 | $133.50 | $133.50 |
| Upside/Downside | 10.49% | 9.15% | 4.81% |
In the current month, the average price target of XPO Logistics stock is $147.50, according to 4 Wall Street analysts offering twelve months forecast. The average price target represents a 10.49% increase as opposed to XPO Logistics's last price of $133.50. This month's average price target is up 1.23% compared to last quarter, and up 5.42% compared to last year.
Analyst Ratings Upgrades/Downgrades
| Date | Company | Previous Rating | New Rating | Rating Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2024 | Cowen & Co. | Buy | Buy | Hold |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Hold |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Hold |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Hold |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Bank of America Securities | Buy | Buy | Hold |
| Oct 30, 2024 | BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Hold |
| Oct 09, 2024 | Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Hold |
| Oct 08, 2024 | Citigroup | Overweight | Buy | Initialise |
| Sep 19, 2024 | Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Hold |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Hold |
XPO Logistics's last stock rating was published by Cowen & Co. on Oct 31, 2024. The company gave XPO a "Buy" rating, the same as its previous rate.
XPO Logistics Financial Forecast
XPO Logistics Revenue Forecast
| Dec 27 | Sep 27 | Jun 27 | Mar 27 | Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jun 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Mar 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $1.94B | $1.98B | $1.92B | $1.91B | $1.83B | $3.04B | $3.23B | $3.47B | $3.36B | $3.27B | $5.04B | $4.77B | $4.67B | $4.22B |
| Avg Forecast | $2.37B | $2.54B | $2.46B | $2.37B | $2.22B | $2.36B | $2.29B | $2.19B | $2.06B | $2.17B | $2.14B | $2.03B | $1.93B | $2.02B | $2.07B | $2.01B | $1.92B | $1.93B | $1.94B | $1.87B | $1.79B | $3.09B | $3.19B | $3.22B | $3.27B | $3.09B | $4.87B | $4.35B | $4.24B | $3.86B |
| High Forecast | $2.45B | $2.62B | $2.54B | $2.44B | $2.29B | $2.44B | $2.37B | $2.26B | $2.13B | $2.24B | $2.21B | $2.11B | $1.98B | $2.04B | $2.07B | $2.01B | $1.95B | $1.97B | $2.00B | $1.93B | $1.85B | $3.09B | $3.19B | $3.22B | $3.27B | $3.09B | $4.87B | $4.35B | $4.24B | $3.86B |
| Low Forecast | $2.31B | $2.48B | $2.40B | $2.31B | $2.17B | $2.30B | $2.24B | $2.13B | $2.01B | $2.11B | $2.09B | $1.96B | $1.90B | $2.00B | $2.07B | $2.01B | $1.87B | $1.89B | $1.89B | $1.82B | $1.74B | $3.09B | $3.19B | $3.22B | $3.27B | $3.09B | $4.87B | $4.35B | $4.24B | $3.86B |
| # Analysts | 7 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 8 |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.01% | 1.03% | 0.99% | 1.02% | 1.02% | 0.98% | 1.01% | 1.08% | 1.03% | 1.06% | 1.03% | 1.10% | 1.10% | 1.09% |
XPO Logistics's average Quarter revenue forecast for Mar 24 based on 3 analysts is $2.01B, with a low forecast of $2.01B, and a high forecast of $2.01B. XPO's average Quarter revenue forecast represents a 3.41% increase compared to the company's last Quarter revenue of $1.94B (Dec 23).
XPO Logistics EBITDA Forecast
| Dec 27 | Sep 27 | Jun 27 | Mar 27 | Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jun 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Mar 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 7 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 8 |
| EBITDA | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $263.00M | $266.00M | $196.00M | $207.00M | $201.00M | $352.00M | $405.00M | $321.00M | $303.00M | $-33.00M | $470.00M | $411.00M | $437.00M | $431.00M |
| Avg Forecast | $248.78M | $266.31M | $258.25M | $248.12M | $233.01M | $247.75M | $240.45M | $229.51M | $216.17M | $227.22M | $224.38M | $213.05M | $202.55M | $211.71M | $217.14M | $517.39M | $201.03M | $202.38M | $202.88M | $470.36M | $215.47M | $323.67M | $334.42M | $427.60M | $342.63M | $324.16M | $510.24M | $223.72M | $444.77M | $404.20M |
| High Forecast | $256.69M | $274.78M | $266.47M | $256.01M | $240.43M | $255.63M | $248.10M | $236.81M | $223.05M | $234.44M | $231.51M | $221.40M | $207.79M | $214.02M | $217.14M | $620.87M | $204.20M | $206.76M | $209.33M | $564.43M | $258.56M | $323.67M | $334.42M | $513.11M | $342.63M | $324.16M | $510.24M | $268.46M | $444.77M | $404.20M |
| Low Forecast | $242.48M | $259.57M | $251.71M | $241.83M | $227.11M | $241.48M | $234.36M | $223.70M | $210.70M | $221.46M | $218.69M | $205.74M | $199.40M | $209.40M | $217.14M | $413.91M | $195.74M | $197.89M | $197.74M | $376.28M | $172.37M | $323.67M | $334.42M | $342.08M | $342.63M | $324.16M | $510.24M | $178.98M | $444.77M | $404.20M |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.31% | 1.31% | 0.97% | 0.44% | 0.93% | 1.09% | 1.21% | 0.75% | 0.88% | -0.10% | 0.92% | 1.84% | 0.98% | 1.07% |
3 analysts predict XPO's average Quarter EBITDA for Mar 24 to be $517.39M, with a high of $620.87M and a low of $413.91M. This is 96.73% upper than XPO Logistics's previous annual EBITDA (Dec 23) of $263.00M.
XPO Logistics Net Income Forecast
| Dec 27 | Sep 27 | Jun 27 | Mar 27 | Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jun 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Mar 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 7 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 8 |
| Net Income | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $58.00M | $84.00M | $33.00M | $14.00M | $-36.00M | $131.00M | $141.00M | $488.00M | $126.00M | $-57.00M | $156.00M | $115.00M | $125.00M | $93.00M |
| Avg Forecast | $207.50M | $254.63M | $242.77M | $188.78M | $157.67M | $197.42M | $199.48M | $142.26M | $123.95M | $152.02M | $152.44M | $102.85M | $81.39M | $108.45M | $121.69M | $395.75M | $74.11M | $76.66M | $72.49M | $359.77M | $86.76M | $96.07M | $107.61M | $327.06M | $69.88M | $65.01M | $69.57M | $62.60M | $28.12M | $16.33M |
| High Forecast | $216.08M | $265.16M | $252.81M | $196.59M | $164.19M | $205.58M | $207.72M | $148.14M | $129.08M | $158.31M | $158.74M | $117.90M | $88.68M | $111.52M | $121.70M | $474.90M | $80.18M | $87.62M | $75.48M | $431.72M | $104.11M | $96.07M | $107.61M | $392.48M | $69.88M | $65.01M | $69.57M | $75.12M | $28.12M | $16.33M |
| Low Forecast | $200.67M | $246.24M | $234.78M | $182.57M | $152.48M | $190.92M | $192.91M | $137.58M | $119.87M | $147.02M | $147.42M | $87.80M | $75.32M | $105.37M | $121.69M | $316.60M | $70.46M | $62.06M | $70.10M | $287.82M | $69.40M | $96.07M | $107.61M | $261.65M | $69.88M | $65.01M | $69.57M | $50.08M | $28.12M | $16.33M |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.78% | 1.10% | 0.46% | 0.04% | -0.41% | 1.36% | 1.31% | 1.49% | 1.80% | -0.88% | 2.24% | 1.84% | 4.45% | 5.69% |
XPO Logistics's average Quarter net income forecast for Mar 24 is $395.75M, with a range of $316.60M to $474.90M. XPO's average Quarter net income forecast represents a 582.32% increase compared to the company's last Quarter net income of $58.00M (Dec 23).
XPO Logistics SG&A Forecast
| Dec 27 | Sep 27 | Jun 27 | Mar 27 | Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jun 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Mar 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 7 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 8 |
| SG&A | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $38.00M | - | - | $44.00M | $155.00M | $298.00M | $324.00M | $344.00M | $321.00M | $339.00M | $594.00M | $588.00M | $516.00M | $499.00M |
| Avg Forecast | $217.03M | $232.32M | $225.29M | $216.45M | $203.28M | $216.13M | $209.77M | $200.22M | $188.58M | $198.22M | $195.74M | $185.86M | $176.70M | $184.69M | $189.43M | $278.97M | $175.37M | $176.55M | $176.99M | $253.61M | $228.27M | $282.36M | $291.74M | $230.55M | $298.90M | $282.79M | $445.12M | $320.07M | $388.00M | $352.62M |
| High Forecast | $223.93M | $239.71M | $232.46M | $223.34M | $209.74M | $223.01M | $216.44M | $206.59M | $194.58M | $204.52M | $201.96M | $193.15M | $181.27M | $186.71M | $189.43M | $334.76M | $178.14M | $180.37M | $182.62M | $304.33M | $273.92M | $282.36M | $291.74M | $276.66M | $298.90M | $282.79M | $445.12M | $384.08M | $388.00M | $352.62M |
| Low Forecast | $211.53M | $226.44M | $219.59M | $210.97M | $198.13M | $210.66M | $204.45M | $195.15M | $183.81M | $193.20M | $190.78M | $179.48M | $173.95M | $182.68M | $189.43M | $223.18M | $170.76M | $172.64M | $172.50M | $202.89M | $182.61M | $282.36M | $291.74M | $184.44M | $298.90M | $282.79M | $445.12M | $256.05M | $388.00M | $352.62M |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.22% | - | - | 0.17% | 0.68% | 1.06% | 1.11% | 1.49% | 1.07% | 1.20% | 1.33% | 1.84% | 1.33% | 1.42% |
XPO Logistics's average Quarter SG&A projection for Mar 24 is $278.97M, based on 3 Wall Street analysts, with a range of $223.18M to $334.76M. The forecast indicates a 634.13% rise compared to XPO last annual SG&A of $38.00M (Dec 23).
XPO Logistics EPS Forecast
| Dec 27 | Sep 27 | Jun 27 | Mar 27 | Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jun 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Mar 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 7 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 8 |
| EPS | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0.50 | $0.72 | $0.28 | $0.13 | $-0.31 | $1.14 | $1.23 | $4.25 | $1.10 | $-0.50 | $1.39 | $1.08 | $1.01 | $0.93 |
| Avg Forecast | $1.73 | $2.12 | $2.02 | $1.57 | $1.31 | $1.65 | $1.66 | $1.19 | $1.03 | $1.27 | $1.27 | $0.86 | $0.68 | $0.90 | $1.01 | $0.67 | $0.62 | $0.64 | $0.60 | $0.46 | $0.83 | $0.80 | $0.90 | $0.55 | $0.58 | $0.54 | $0.58 | $0.33 | $0.23 | $0.14 |
| High Forecast | $1.80 | $2.21 | $2.11 | $1.64 | $1.37 | $1.71 | $1.73 | $1.23 | $1.08 | $1.32 | $1.32 | $0.98 | $0.74 | $0.93 | $1.01 | $0.67 | $0.67 | $0.73 | $0.63 | $0.48 | $0.87 | $0.80 | $0.90 | $0.55 | $0.58 | $0.54 | $0.58 | $0.33 | $0.23 | $0.14 |
| Low Forecast | $1.67 | $2.05 | $1.96 | $1.52 | $1.27 | $1.59 | $1.61 | $1.15 | $1.00 | $1.23 | $1.23 | $0.73 | $0.63 | $0.88 | $1.01 | $0.67 | $0.59 | $0.52 | $0.58 | $0.45 | $0.81 | $0.80 | $0.90 | $0.55 | $0.58 | $0.54 | $0.58 | $0.33 | $0.23 | $0.14 |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.81% | 1.13% | 0.46% | 0.28% | -0.37% | 1.42% | 1.37% | 7.72% | 1.89% | -0.92% | 2.40% | 3.23% | 4.31% | 6.83% |
According to 3 Wall Street analysts, XPO Logistics's projected average Quarter EPS for Mar 24 is $0.67, with a low estimate of $0.67 and a high estimate of $0.67. This represents a 34.31% increase compared to XPO previous annual EPS of $0.50 (Dec 23).
XPO Logistics Peer Comparison by Price Target
| Ticker | Company | Last Closing Price | Avg Price Target | Upside/Downside | Avg Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTLD | Heartland Express | $10.90 | $16.33 | 49.82% | Hold |
| MRTN | Marten Transport | $15.90 | $22.50 | 41.51% | Hold |
| ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | $203.99 | $271.44 | 33.07% | Hold |
| ARCB | ArcBest | $100.54 | $128.80 | 28.11% | Hold |
| TFII | TFI | $134.29 | $158.18 | 17.79% | Buy |
| KNX | Knight-Swift Transportation | $53.07 | $59.40 | 11.93% | Buy |
| WERN | Werner Enterprises | $37.31 | $41.67 | 11.69% | Sell |
| SNDR | Schneider National | $28.57 | $27.75 | -2.87% | Buy |
| XPO | XPO Logistics | $133.50 | $120.91 | -9.43% | Buy |
| ULH | Universal Logistics | $43.56 | $36.00 | -17.36% | - |
| SAIA | Saia | $486.14 | $376.29 | -22.60% | Buy |
XPO Forecast FAQ
Is XPO Logistics a good buy?
Yes, according to 17 Wall Street analysts, XPO Logistics (XPO) is considered a 'Buy'. The rating consensus is based on 0 'Strong Buy' and 16 'Buy' recommendations, accounting for 94.12% of XPO's total ratings.
What is XPO's price target?
XPO Logistics (XPO) average price target is $120.91 with a range of $75 to $164, implying a -9.43% from its last price of $133.5. The data is based on 17 Wall Street analysts who provided a twelve-month price target estimate in the last three months.
Will XPO Logistics stock go up soon?
According to Wall Street analysts' prediction for XPO stock, the company can go down by -9.43% (from the last price of $133.5 to the average price target of $120.91), up by 22.85% based on the highest stock price target, and down by -43.82% based on the lowest stock price target.
Can XPO Logistics stock reach $200?
XPO's average twelve months analyst stock price target of $120.91 does not support the claim that XPO Logistics can reach $200 in the near future.
What is XPO Logistics's current price target trend?
4 Wall Street analysts forecast a $147.5 price target for XPO Logistics (XPO) this month, up 10.49% from its last price of $133.5. Compared to the last 3 and 12 months, the average price target increased by 9.15% and increased by 4.81%, respectively.
What are XPO Logistics's analysts' financial forecasts?
XPO Logistics's analysts financial forecasts for the fiscal year (Dec 2026) are as follows: average revenue is $9.07B (high $9.36B, low $8.84B), average EBITDA is $950.73M (high $980.97M, low $926.66M), average net income is $696.82M (high $725.63M, low $673.88M), average SG&A $829.4M (high $855.77M, low $808.39M), and average EPS is $5.81 (high $6.05, low $5.62). XPO's analysts financial forecasts for the fiscal year (Dec 2027) are as follows: average revenue is $9.75B (high $10.06B, low $9.5B), average EBITDA is $1.02B (high $1.05B, low $995.59M), average net income is $893.69M (high $930.64M, low $864.27M), average SG&A $891.09M (high $919.43M, low $868.53M), and average EPS is $7.45 (high $7.76, low $7.2).
Did the XPO's actual financial results beat the analysts' financial forecasts?
Based on XPO Logistics's last annual report (Dec 2023), the company's revenue was $7.74B, beating the average analysts forecast of $7.65B by 1.17%. Apple's EBITDA was $990M, missing the average prediction of $1.08B by -8.05%. The company's net income was $189M, missing the average estimation of $583.03M by -67.58%. Apple's SG&A was $167M, missing the average forecast of $782.51M by -78.66%. Lastly, the company's EPS was $1.64, missing the average prediction of $2.32 by -29.37%. In terms of the last quarterly report (Dec 2023), XPO Logistics's revenue was $1.94B, beating the average analysts' forecast of $1.92B by 1.13%. The company's EBITDA was $263M, beating the average prediction of $201.03M by 30.83%. XPO Logistics's net income was $58M, missing the average estimation of $74.11M by -21.74%. The company's SG&A was $38M, missing the average forecast of $175.37M by -78.33%. Lastly, the company's EPS was $0.5, missing the average prediction of $0.618 by -19.04%