Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Forecast, Price Target & Predictions
TOL Stock Forecast
Toll Brothers stock forecast is as follows: an average price target of $125.06 (represents a -17.54% downside from TOL’s last price of $151.66) and a rating consensus of 'Buy', based on 28 wall street analysts offering a 1-year stock forecast.
TOL Price Target
The average price target for Toll Brothers (TOL) is $125.06 based on 1-year price targets from 28 Wall Street analysts in the past 3 months, with a price target range of $180.00 to $58.00. This represents a potential -17.54% downside from TOL's last price of $151.66.
TOL Analyst Ratings
According to 28 Wall Street analysts, Toll Brothers's rating consensus is 'Buy'. The analyst rating breakdown for TOL stock is 1 'Strong Buy' (3.57%), 20 'Buy' (71.43%), 4 'Hold' (14.29%), 3 'Sell' (10.71%), and 0 'Strong Sell' (0.00%).
Toll Brothers Price Target by Analyst
| Date | Analyst | Company | Price Target | Price when Published | Price Target/Price when Published | Price Target/Last Closing Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2024 | Jay McCanless | Wedbush | $175.00 | $149.02 | 17.43% | 15.39% |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Mike Dahl | RBC Capital | $143.00 | $141.03 | 1.40% | -5.71% |
| Aug 20, 2024 | Mark Weintraub | Seaport Global | $108.00 | $133.86 | -19.32% | -28.79% |
| Aug 20, 2024 | Anthony Pettinari | Citigroup | $125.00 | $133.86 | -6.62% | -17.58% |
| Aug 20, 2024 | Matthew Bouley | Barclays | $116.00 | $133.86 | -13.34% | -23.51% |
| Jul 15, 2024 | Stephen Kim | Evercore ISI | $180.00 | $123.15 | 46.16% | 18.69% |
| Jun 17, 2024 | Ryan MacDonald | Needham | $77.00 | $119.23 | -35.42% | -49.23% |
| Jun 17, 2024 | Susan Maklari | Goldman Sachs | $124.00 | $119.32 | 3.92% | -18.24% |
| Jun 06, 2024 | Chris Graja | Argus Research | $140.00 | $120.25 | 16.42% | -7.69% |
| May 28, 2024 | Matthew Bouley | Barclays | $118.00 | $122.91 | -3.99% | -22.19% |
The latest Toll Brothers stock forecast, released on Oct 25, 2024 by Jay McCanless from Wedbush, set a price target of $175.00, which represents a 17.43% increase from the stock price at the time of the forecast ($149.02), and a 15.39% increase from TOL last price ($151.66).
Toll Brothers Price Target by Period
| 1M | 3M | 12M | |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Anlaysts | 1 | 5 | 21 |
| Avg Price Target | $175.00 | $133.40 | $136.29 |
| Last Closing Price | $151.66 | $151.66 | $151.66 |
| Upside/Downside | 15.39% | -12.04% | -10.13% |
In the current month, the average price target of Toll Brothers stock is $175.00, according to 1 Wall Street analyst offering twelve months forecast. The average price target represents a 15.39% increase as opposed to Toll Brothers's last price of $151.66. This month's average price target is up 31.18% compared to last quarter, and up 28.40% compared to last year.
Analyst Ratings Upgrades/Downgrades
| Date | Company | Previous Rating | New Rating | Rating Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2024 | Wedbush | Neutral | Outperform | Upgrade |
| Sep 27, 2024 | Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Hold |
| Aug 27, 2024 | Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Hold |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Hold |
| Aug 22, 2024 | RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Hold |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Hold |
| Aug 21, 2024 | UBS | Buy | Buy | Hold |
| Aug 20, 2024 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Hold |
| Aug 20, 2024 | Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Hold |
| Aug 20, 2024 | Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Hold |
Toll Brothers's last stock rating was published by Wedbush on Oct 25, 2024. The company Upgrade its TOL rating from "Neutral" to "Outperform".
Toll Brothers Financial Forecast
Toll Brothers Revenue Forecast
| Oct 26 | Jul 26 | May 26 | Jan 26 | Oct 25 | Jul 25 | May 25 | Jan 25 | Oct 24 | Jul 24 | May 24 | Jan 24 | Oct 23 | Jul 23 | May 23 | Jan 23 | Oct 22 | Jul 22 | May 22 | Jan 22 | Oct 21 | Jul 21 | May 21 | Jan 21 | Oct 20 | Jul 20 | May 20 | Jan 20 | Oct 19 | Jul 19 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $1.95B | $3.02B | $2.69B | - | $1.78B | $3.71B | $2.49B | - | $1.79B | $3.04B | $2.26B | - | $1.56B | $2.55B | $1.65B | - | $1.33B | $2.38B | $1.77B |
| Avg Forecast | $3.55B | $2.99B | $2.58B | $2.05B | $3.27B | $2.94B | $2.66B | $2.04B | $3.17B | $2.71B | $2.58B | $1.88B | $2.78B | $2.40B | $2.06B | $1.74B | $3.17B | $2.50B | $2.08B | $1.78B | $2.90B | $2.25B | $1.77B | $1.35B | $2.08B | $1.52B | $1.56B | $1.44B | $2.19B | $1.70B |
| High Forecast | $3.74B | $3.14B | $2.71B | $2.16B | $3.44B | $3.09B | $2.80B | $2.14B | $3.21B | $2.71B | $2.58B | $1.97B | $2.87B | $2.53B | $2.17B | $1.83B | $3.46B | $2.74B | $2.27B | $1.95B | $3.17B | $2.45B | $1.94B | $1.48B | $2.27B | $1.66B | $1.70B | $1.57B | $2.39B | $1.86B |
| Low Forecast | $3.35B | $2.81B | $2.43B | $1.93B | $3.08B | $2.77B | $2.51B | $1.98B | $3.14B | $2.71B | $2.58B | $1.77B | $2.73B | $2.27B | $1.94B | $1.64B | $2.98B | $2.34B | $1.94B | $1.67B | $2.71B | $2.10B | $1.66B | $1.27B | $1.94B | $1.42B | $1.46B | $1.35B | $2.05B | $1.59B |
| # Analysts | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.04% | 1.09% | 1.12% | - | 1.02% | 1.17% | 1.00% | - | 1.00% | 1.05% | 1.00% | - | 1.16% | 1.23% | 1.09% | - | 0.93% | 1.09% | 1.04% |
Toll Brothers's average Quarter revenue forecast for May 24 based on 5 analysts is $2.58B, with a low forecast of $2.58B, and a high forecast of $2.58B. TOL's average Quarter revenue forecast represents a 32.48% increase compared to the company's last Quarter revenue of $1.95B (Jan 24).
Toll Brothers EBITDA Forecast
| Oct 26 | Jul 26 | May 26 | Jan 26 | Oct 25 | Jul 25 | May 25 | Jan 25 | Oct 24 | Jul 24 | May 24 | Jan 24 | Oct 23 | Jul 23 | May 23 | Jan 23 | Oct 22 | Jul 22 | May 22 | Jan 22 | Oct 21 | Jul 21 | May 21 | Jan 21 | Oct 20 | Jul 20 | May 20 | Jan 20 | Oct 19 | Jul 19 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| EBITDA | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $324.11M | $558.62M | $515.11M | - | $225.31M | $690.23M | $361.67M | - | $175.07M | $522.00M | $324.15M | - | $135.99M | $289.16M | $168.28M | - | $62.16M | $245.63M | $189.10M |
| Avg Forecast | $434.50M | $365.20M | $315.27M | $251.00M | $399.76M | $359.29M | $325.07M | $249.94M | $387.36M | $331.24M | $276.39M | $229.38M | $340.14M | $293.99M | $218.49M | $519.78M | $388.18M | $306.36M | $198.63M | $218.08M | $354.40M | $274.63M | $60.78M | $165.53M | $254.14M | $185.37M | $87.76M | $175.91M | $267.92M | $207.73M |
| High Forecast | $457.50M | $384.53M | $331.96M | $264.28M | $420.92M | $378.31M | $342.28M | $262.19M | $392.26M | $331.24M | $331.67M | $241.53M | $351.15M | $309.56M | $262.19M | $623.73M | $422.86M | $334.86M | $238.36M | $238.37M | $387.37M | $300.19M | $72.94M | $180.93M | $277.78M | $202.61M | $105.32M | $192.27M | $292.84M | $227.06M |
| Low Forecast | $409.60M | $344.27M | $297.21M | $236.62M | $376.85M | $338.71M | $306.45M | $242.59M | $383.68M | $331.24M | $221.12M | $216.24M | $334.03M | $277.15M | $174.79M | $415.82M | $364.94M | $286.55M | $158.90M | $203.98M | $331.49M | $256.88M | $48.63M | $154.83M | $237.70M | $173.38M | $70.21M | $164.53M | $250.59M | $194.30M |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.41% | 1.64% | 1.75% | - | 0.43% | 1.78% | 1.18% | - | 0.80% | 1.47% | 1.18% | - | 0.82% | 1.14% | 0.91% | - | 0.35% | 0.92% | 0.91% |
5 analysts predict TOL's average Quarter EBITDA for May 24 to be $276.39M, with a high of $331.67M and a low of $221.12M. This is -14.72% lower than Toll Brothers's previous annual EBITDA (Jan 24) of $324.11M.
Toll Brothers Net Income Forecast
| Oct 26 | Jul 26 | May 26 | Jan 26 | Oct 25 | Jul 25 | May 25 | Jan 25 | Oct 24 | Jul 24 | May 24 | Jan 24 | Oct 23 | Jul 23 | May 23 | Jan 23 | Oct 22 | Jul 22 | May 22 | Jan 22 | Oct 21 | Jul 21 | May 21 | Jan 21 | Oct 20 | Jul 20 | May 20 | Jan 20 | Oct 19 | Jul 19 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| Net Income | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $239.56M | $445.54M | $414.79M | - | $191.53M | $640.54M | $273.47M | - | $151.90M | $374.33M | $234.93M | - | $96.50M | $199.32M | $114.76M | - | $56.88M | $202.31M | $146.32M |
| Avg Forecast | $565.95M | $452.83M | $363.03M | $256.57M | $486.58M | $419.82M | $364.01M | $244.48M | $451.71M | $344.25M | $194.83M | $185.24M | $387.03M | $296.11M | $154.02M | $372.74M | $418.06M | $239.38M | $140.02M | $119.77M | $257.92M | $160.57M | $40.65M | $49.20M | $128.82M | $72.22M | $61.93M | $47.62M | $134.11M | $85.85M |
| High Forecast | $604.90M | $484.00M | $388.02M | $274.23M | $520.07M | $448.71M | $389.06M | $258.01M | $462.19M | $344.28M | $233.80M | $197.99M | $397.66M | $316.49M | $184.82M | $447.28M | $466.62M | $268.34M | $168.02M | $134.26M | $289.12M | $179.99M | $48.78M | $55.16M | $144.40M | $80.96M | $74.32M | $53.38M | $150.33M | $96.23M |
| Low Forecast | $523.79M | $419.11M | $335.99M | $237.46M | $450.34M | $388.55M | $336.89M | $235.12M | $442.27M | $344.21M | $155.87M | $171.44M | $367.89M | $274.05M | $123.21M | $298.19M | $385.52M | $219.26M | $112.01M | $109.70M | $236.25M | $147.07M | $32.52M | $45.07M | $117.99M | $66.15M | $49.55M | $43.62M | $122.84M | $78.63M |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.29% | 1.15% | 1.40% | - | 0.51% | 1.53% | 1.14% | - | 1.27% | 1.45% | 1.46% | - | 1.96% | 1.55% | 1.59% | - | 1.19% | 1.51% | 1.70% |
Toll Brothers's average Quarter net income forecast for May 24 is $194.83M, with a range of $155.87M to $233.80M. TOL's average Quarter net income forecast represents a -18.67% decrease compared to the company's last Quarter net income of $239.56M (Jan 24).
Toll Brothers SG&A Forecast
| Oct 26 | Jul 26 | May 26 | Jan 26 | Oct 25 | Jul 25 | May 25 | Jan 25 | Oct 24 | Jul 24 | May 24 | Jan 24 | Oct 23 | Jul 23 | May 23 | Jan 23 | Oct 22 | Jul 22 | May 22 | Jan 22 | Oct 21 | Jul 21 | May 21 | Jan 21 | Oct 20 | Jul 20 | May 20 | Jan 20 | Oct 19 | Jul 19 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| SG&A | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $230.05M | $241.41M | $229.00M | - | $211.50M | $274.38M | $232.87M | - | $226.87M | $258.20M | $233.91M | - | $210.74M | $335.62M | $160.65M | - | $191.75M | $207.23M | $186.71M |
| Avg Forecast | $366.12M | $307.73M | $265.66M | $211.50M | $336.85M | $302.75M | $273.92M | $210.60M | $326.40M | $279.12M | $290.98M | $193.28M | $286.61M | $247.73M | $230.03M | $257.10M | $327.09M | $258.15M | $209.11M | $183.76M | $298.63M | $231.42M | $88.78M | $139.48M | $214.14M | $156.20M | $208.80M | $148.22M | $225.76M | $175.04M |
| High Forecast | $385.50M | $324.02M | $279.72M | $222.69M | $354.68M | $318.78M | $288.42M | $220.93M | $330.53M | $279.12M | $349.18M | $203.52M | $295.89M | $260.84M | $276.03M | $308.52M | $356.32M | $282.17M | $250.94M | $200.86M | $326.41M | $252.95M | $106.54M | $152.46M | $234.07M | $170.73M | $250.56M | $162.02M | $246.76M | $191.33M |
| Low Forecast | $345.14M | $290.10M | $250.44M | $199.38M | $317.55M | $285.40M | $258.22M | $204.41M | $323.30M | $279.12M | $232.79M | $182.21M | $281.46M | $233.54M | $184.02M | $205.68M | $307.51M | $241.46M | $167.29M | $171.88M | $279.32M | $216.45M | $71.02M | $130.46M | $200.30M | $146.10M | $167.04M | $138.64M | $211.16M | $163.73M |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.19% | 0.84% | 0.92% | - | 0.82% | 0.84% | 0.90% | - | 1.23% | 0.86% | 1.01% | - | 1.51% | 1.57% | 1.03% | - | 1.29% | 0.92% | 1.07% |
Toll Brothers's average Quarter SG&A projection for May 24 is $290.98M, based on 5 Wall Street analysts, with a range of $232.79M to $349.18M. The forecast indicates a 26.49% rise compared to TOL last annual SG&A of $230.05M (Jan 24).
Toll Brothers EPS Forecast
| Oct 26 | Jul 26 | May 26 | Jan 26 | Oct 25 | Jul 25 | May 25 | Jan 25 | Oct 24 | Jul 24 | May 24 | Jan 24 | Oct 23 | Jul 23 | May 23 | Jan 23 | Oct 22 | Jul 22 | May 22 | Jan 22 | Oct 21 | Jul 21 | May 21 | Jan 21 | Oct 20 | Jul 20 | May 20 | Jan 20 | Oct 19 | Jul 19 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| EPS | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $2.25 | $4.15 | $3.77 | - | $1.72 | $5.67 | $2.37 | - | $1.26 | $3.06 | $1.90 | - | $0.77 | $1.57 | $0.91 | - | $0.41 | $1.43 | $1.01 |
| Avg Forecast | $5.44 | $4.35 | $3.49 | $2.47 | $4.68 | $4.04 | $3.50 | $2.35 | $4.34 | $3.31 | $4.16 | $1.78 | $3.72 | $2.85 | $1.91 | $1.38 | $4.02 | $2.30 | $1.50 | $1.15 | $2.48 | $1.54 | $0.80 | $0.47 | $1.24 | $0.69 | $0.43 | $0.46 | $1.29 | $0.83 |
| High Forecast | $5.82 | $4.65 | $3.73 | $2.64 | $5.00 | $4.31 | $3.74 | $2.48 | $4.44 | $3.31 | $4.17 | $1.90 | $3.82 | $3.04 | $2.04 | $1.48 | $4.49 | $2.58 | $1.54 | $1.29 | $2.78 | $1.73 | $0.90 | $0.53 | $1.39 | $0.78 | $0.48 | $0.51 | $1.45 | $0.93 |
| Low Forecast | $5.04 | $4.03 | $3.23 | $2.28 | $4.33 | $3.74 | $3.24 | $2.26 | $4.25 | $3.31 | $4.15 | $1.65 | $3.54 | $2.63 | $1.77 | $1.28 | $3.71 | $2.11 | $1.47 | $1.05 | $2.27 | $1.41 | $0.73 | $0.43 | $1.13 | $0.64 | $0.39 | $0.42 | $1.18 | $0.76 |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.26% | 1.12% | 1.32% | - | 1.24% | 1.41% | 1.03% | - | 1.09% | 1.23% | 1.23% | - | 1.63% | 1.27% | 1.31% | - | 0.90% | 1.11% | 1.22% |
According to 5 Wall Street analysts, Toll Brothers's projected average Quarter EPS for May 24 is $4.16, with a low estimate of $4.15 and a high estimate of $4.17. This represents a 84.86% increase compared to TOL previous annual EPS of $2.25 (Jan 24).
Toll Brothers Peer Comparison by Price Target
| Ticker | Company | Last Closing Price | Avg Price Target | Upside/Downside | Avg Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MHO | M/I Homes | $153.61 | $197.50 | 28.57% | Strong Buy |
| BZH | Beazer Homes USA | $31.96 | $41.00 | 28.29% | Buy |
| TMHC | Taylor Morrison Home | $69.79 | $73.83 | 5.79% | Buy |
| LEN | Lennar | $166.33 | $160.61 | -3.44% | Buy |
| DHI | D.R. Horton | $161.13 | $150.82 | -6.40% | Buy |
| TOL | Toll Brothers | $151.66 | $125.06 | -17.54% | Buy |
| KBH | KB Home | $78.41 | $59.46 | -24.17% | Buy |
| PHM | PulteGroup | $127.48 | $92.50 | -27.44% | Buy |
| NVR | NVR | $9.11K | $4.90K | -46.19% | Hold |