Murphy Oil (MUR) Stock Forecast, Price Target & Predictions
MUR Stock Forecast
Murphy Oil stock forecast is as follows: an average price target of $47.90 (represents a 40.18% upside from MUR’s last price of $34.17) and a rating consensus of 'Buy', based on 8 wall street analysts offering a 1-year stock forecast.
MUR Price Target
The average price target for Murphy Oil (MUR) is $47.90 based on 1-year price targets from 8 Wall Street analysts in the past 3 months, with a price target range of $55.00 to $35.00. This represents a potential 40.18% upside from MUR's last price of $34.17.
MUR Analyst Ratings
According to 8 Wall Street analysts, Murphy Oil's rating consensus is 'Buy'. The analyst rating breakdown for MUR stock is 0 'Strong Buy' (0.00%), 4 'Buy' (50.00%), 3 'Hold' (37.50%), 1 'Sell' (12.50%), and 0 'Strong Sell' (0.00%).
Murphy Oil Price Target by Analyst
| Date | Analyst | Company | Price Target | Price when Published | Price Target/Price when Published | Price Target/Last Closing Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2024 | Neal Dingmann | Truist Financial | $55.00 | $40.83 | 34.70% | 60.96% |
| Jul 18, 2024 | Mark Lear | Piper Sandler | $54.00 | $42.07 | 28.36% | 58.03% |
| May 24, 2024 | Devin McDermott | Morgan Stanley | $45.00 | $42.15 | 6.76% | 31.69% |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Mark Lear | Piper Sandler | $55.00 | $45.19 | 21.71% | 60.96% |
| Apr 15, 2024 | Nitin Kumar | Mizuho Securities | $55.00 | $47.04 | 16.92% | 60.96% |
| Apr 11, 2024 | Paul Cheng | Scotiabank | $50.00 | $48.11 | 3.93% | 46.33% |
| Apr 09, 2024 | Betty Jiang | Barclays | $54.00 | $47.92 | 12.69% | 58.03% |
| Apr 05, 2024 | Neal Dingmann | Truist Financial | $59.00 | $48.57 | 21.47% | 72.67% |
| Mar 21, 2024 | Nitin Kumar | Mizuho Securities | $53.00 | $44.74 | 18.46% | 55.11% |
| Jan 10, 2023 | - | Wells Fargo | $44.00 | $41.34 | 6.43% | 28.77% |
The latest Murphy Oil stock forecast, released on Jul 22, 2024 by Neal Dingmann from Truist Financial, set a price target of $55.00, which represents a 34.70% increase from the stock price at the time of the forecast ($40.83), and a 60.96% increase from MUR last price ($34.17).
Murphy Oil Price Target by Period
| 1M | 3M | 12M | |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Anlaysts | - | 2 | 9 |
| Avg Price Target | - | $54.50 | $53.33 |
| Last Closing Price | $34.17 | $34.17 | $34.17 |
| Upside/Downside | -100.00% | 59.50% | 56.07% |
In the current month, the average price target of Murphy Oil stock is -, according to 0 Wall Street analyst offering twelve months forecast. The average price target represents a -100.00% decrease as opposed to Murphy Oil's last price of $34.17. This month's average price target is down -100.00% compared to last quarter, and down -100.00% compared to last year.
Analyst Ratings Upgrades/Downgrades
| Date | Company | Previous Rating | New Rating | Rating Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2024 | Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Hold |
| Jul 17, 2024 | Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Initialise |
| May 24, 2024 | Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight | Equal-Weight | Hold |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Hold |
| Jan 29, 2024 | Sandler O'Neill | Underperform | Underperform | Hold |
| Jan 11, 2024 | UBS | Buy | Buy | Hold |
| Jan 11, 2024 | Piper Sandler | Underperform | Underperform | Hold |
| Aug 28, 2023 | Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Hold |
| Apr 17, 2023 | Jefferies | - | Buy | Upgrade |
| Jan 10, 2023 | Wells Fargo | Equal-Weight | Equal-Weight | Hold |
Murphy Oil's last stock rating was published by Piper Sandler on Jul 18, 2024. The company gave MUR a "Overweight" rating, the same as its previous rate.
Murphy Oil Financial Forecast
Murphy Oil Revenue Forecast
| Dec 27 | Sep 27 | Jun 27 | Mar 27 | Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jun 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Mar 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $844.20M | $959.64M | $814.59M | $839.97M | $986.12M | $1.17B | $1.20B | $871.37M | $762.31M | $687.55M | $758.83M | $592.53M | $440.08M | $425.32M |
| Avg Forecast | $1.25B | $1.22B | $1.18B | $1.14B | $908.44M | $897.59M | $903.60M | $886.45M | $890.75M | $872.28M | $862.67M | $847.56M | $845.60M | $802.95M | $813.97M | $750.94M | $852.24M | $918.89M | $779.77M | $789.00M | $854.15M | $966.74M | $885.08M | $652.29M | $612.68M | $564.13M | $607.90M | $494.93M | $481.75M | $471.04M |
| High Forecast | $1.36B | $1.31B | $1.27B | $1.23B | $981.93M | $970.20M | $976.69M | $958.16M | $962.80M | $942.84M | $932.45M | $916.12M | $914.00M | $856.88M | $879.81M | $811.69M | $921.18M | $967.58M | $842.84M | $852.83M | $923.24M | $1.04B | $964.81M | $711.05M | $667.87M | $614.94M | $662.66M | $539.51M | $525.15M | $513.47M |
| Low Forecast | $1.18B | $1.14B | $1.11B | $1.07B | $854.11M | $843.91M | $849.55M | $833.43M | $837.47M | $820.11M | $811.07M | $796.87M | $795.02M | $778.03M | $765.28M | $706.03M | $801.27M | $876.85M | $733.13M | $741.81M | $803.06M | $908.92M | $823.17M | $606.67M | $569.82M | $524.67M | $565.38M | $460.31M | $448.05M | $438.09M |
| # Analysts | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.99% | 1.04% | 1.04% | 1.06% | 1.15% | 1.21% | 1.35% | 1.34% | 1.24% | 1.22% | 1.25% | 1.20% | 0.91% | 0.90% |
Murphy Oil's average Quarter revenue forecast for Mar 24 based on 4 analysts is $750.94M, with a low forecast of $706.03M, and a high forecast of $811.69M. MUR's average Quarter revenue forecast represents a -11.05% decrease compared to the company's last Quarter revenue of $844.20M (Dec 23).
Murphy Oil EBITDA Forecast
| Dec 27 | Sep 27 | Jun 27 | Mar 27 | Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jun 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Mar 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| EBITDA | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $334.49M | $540.96M | $318.97M | $502.08M | $540.22M | $864.03M | $865.52M | $452.55M | $453.45M | $383.62M | $200.93M | $-83.88M | $53.04M | $-24.18M |
| Avg Forecast | $685.72M | $664.08M | $643.13M | $622.83M | $496.42M | $490.49M | $493.77M | $484.40M | $486.75M | $476.66M | $471.41M | $463.15M | $462.08M | $438.78M | $444.79M | $63.79M | $465.71M | $502.13M | $426.10M | $57.99M | $466.75M | $213.52M | $483.66M | $52.72M | $334.80M | $308.27M | $332.19M | $-177.62M | $263.25M | $257.40M |
| High Forecast | $741.19M | $717.80M | $695.15M | $673.21M | $536.58M | $530.17M | $533.71M | $523.59M | $526.13M | $515.22M | $509.54M | $500.62M | $499.46M | $468.24M | $480.77M | $76.54M | $503.38M | $528.73M | $460.57M | $69.58M | $504.51M | $256.23M | $527.22M | $63.26M | $364.96M | $336.04M | $362.11M | $-142.10M | $286.97M | $280.59M |
| Low Forecast | $644.71M | $624.36M | $604.66M | $585.58M | $466.73M | $461.15M | $464.24M | $455.43M | $457.64M | $448.15M | $443.21M | $435.45M | $434.44M | $425.16M | $418.19M | $51.03M | $437.85M | $479.15M | $400.62M | $46.39M | $438.83M | $170.82M | $449.82M | $42.17M | $311.38M | $286.71M | $308.95M | $-213.15M | $244.84M | $239.40M |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.72% | 1.08% | 0.75% | 8.66% | 1.16% | 4.05% | 1.79% | 8.58% | 1.35% | 1.24% | 0.60% | 0.47% | 0.20% | -0.09% |
4 analysts predict MUR's average Quarter EBITDA for Mar 24 to be $63.79M, with a high of $76.54M and a low of $51.03M. This is -80.93% lower than Murphy Oil's previous annual EBITDA (Dec 23) of $334.49M.
Murphy Oil Net Income Forecast
| Dec 27 | Sep 27 | Jun 27 | Mar 27 | Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jun 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Mar 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| Net Income | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $178.41M | $255.34M | $98.29M | $191.64M | $199.40M | $528.43M | $350.56M | $-64.94M | $204.71M | $108.46M | $-63.08M | $-287.44M | $-171.94M | $-243.55M |
| Avg Forecast | $233.38M | $219.18M | $201.54M | $194.00M | $230.96M | $223.52M | $218.57M | $214.89M | $216.51M | $206.52M | $196.31M | $196.58M | $186.81M | $148.67M | $111.70M | $-101.67M | $153.61M | $217.73M | $122.40M | $-92.43M | $172.22M | $60.37M | $238.75M | $-84.02M | $67.78M | $17.53M | $45.90M | $-608.69M | $-16.29M | $-27.59M |
| High Forecast | $257.92M | $242.23M | $222.73M | $214.40M | $255.24M | $247.03M | $241.55M | $237.49M | $239.28M | $228.23M | $216.95M | $217.25M | $206.45M | $170.97M | $123.44M | $-81.34M | $169.76M | $225.19M | $135.28M | $-73.94M | $190.33M | $72.44M | $266.70M | $-67.22M | $75.71M | $19.58M | $51.28M | $-486.95M | $-14.81M | $-25.08M |
| Low Forecast | $215.23M | $202.14M | $185.87M | $178.92M | $213.00M | $206.14M | $201.57M | $198.18M | $199.68M | $190.46M | $181.04M | $181.29M | $172.28M | $123.40M | $103.01M | $-122.00M | $141.66M | $174.48M | $112.89M | $-110.91M | $158.83M | $48.29M | $217.04M | $-100.83M | $61.61M | $15.93M | $41.73M | $-730.43M | $-18.20M | $-30.82M |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.16% | 1.17% | 0.80% | -2.07% | 1.16% | 8.75% | 1.47% | 0.77% | 3.02% | 6.19% | -1.37% | 0.47% | 10.55% | 8.83% |
Murphy Oil's average Quarter net income forecast for Mar 24 is $-101.67M, with a range of $-122.00M to $-81.34M. MUR's average Quarter net income forecast represents a -156.99% decrease compared to the company's last Quarter net income of $178.41M (Dec 23).
Murphy Oil SG&A Forecast
| Dec 27 | Sep 27 | Jun 27 | Mar 27 | Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jun 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Mar 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| SG&A | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $18.31M | $41.11M | $29.35M | $27.13M | $33.53M | $36.12M | $27.21M | $29.11M | $29.50M | $35.86M | $28.51M |
| Avg Forecast | $68.06M | $65.91M | $63.83M | $61.82M | $49.27M | $48.68M | $49.01M | $48.08M | $48.31M | $47.31M | $46.79M | $45.97M | $45.86M | $43.55M | $44.15M | $30.08M | $46.22M | $49.84M | $42.29M | $27.34M | $46.33M | $15.15M | $48.00M | $24.86M | $33.23M | $30.60M | $32.97M | $62.48M | $26.13M | $25.55M |
| High Forecast | $73.56M | $71.24M | $69.00M | $66.82M | $53.26M | $52.62M | $52.97M | $51.97M | $52.22M | $51.14M | $50.57M | $49.69M | $49.57M | $46.47M | $47.72M | $36.09M | $49.96M | $52.48M | $45.71M | $32.81M | $50.07M | $18.17M | $52.33M | $29.83M | $36.22M | $33.35M | $35.94M | $74.97M | $28.48M | $27.85M |
| Low Forecast | $63.99M | $61.97M | $60.01M | $58.12M | $46.32M | $45.77M | $46.08M | $45.20M | $45.42M | $44.48M | $43.99M | $43.22M | $43.12M | $42.20M | $41.51M | $24.06M | $43.46M | $47.56M | $39.76M | $21.87M | $43.56M | $12.12M | $44.65M | $19.89M | $30.91M | $28.46M | $30.66M | $49.98M | $24.30M | $23.76M |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.67% | 0.89% | 1.94% | 0.57% | 1.35% | 1.09% | 0.89% | 0.88% | 0.47% | 1.37% | 1.12% |
Murphy Oil's average Quarter SG&A projection for Jun 23 is $42.29M, based on 5 Wall Street analysts, with a range of $39.76M to $45.71M. The forecast indicates a 131.00% rise compared to MUR last annual SG&A of $18.31M (Mar 23).
Murphy Oil EPS Forecast
| Dec 27 | Sep 27 | Jun 27 | Mar 27 | Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jun 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Mar 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| EPS | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $1.16 | $1.64 | $0.63 | $1.22 | $1.28 | $3.40 | $2.26 | $-0.42 | $1.33 | $0.70 | $-0.41 | $-1.87 | $-1.11 | $-1.59 |
| Avg Forecast | $1.52 | $1.43 | $1.32 | $1.27 | $1.51 | $1.46 | $1.43 | $1.40 | $1.41 | $1.35 | $1.28 | $1.28 | $1.22 | $0.97 | $0.73 | $0.83 | $1.00 | $1.42 | $0.80 | $0.98 | $1.12 | $1.61 | $1.56 | $0.61 | $0.44 | $0.11 | $0.30 | $-0.12 | $-0.11 | $-0.18 |
| High Forecast | $1.68 | $1.58 | $1.45 | $1.40 | $1.67 | $1.61 | $1.58 | $1.55 | $1.56 | $1.49 | $1.42 | $1.42 | $1.35 | $1.12 | $0.81 | $0.92 | $1.11 | $1.47 | $0.88 | $1.09 | $1.24 | $1.78 | $1.74 | $0.69 | $0.49 | $0.13 | $0.33 | $-0.11 | $-0.10 | $-0.16 |
| Low Forecast | $1.41 | $1.32 | $1.21 | $1.17 | $1.39 | $1.35 | $1.32 | $1.29 | $1.30 | $1.24 | $1.18 | $1.18 | $1.12 | $0.81 | $0.67 | $0.77 | $0.93 | $1.14 | $0.74 | $0.91 | $1.04 | $1.49 | $1.42 | $0.56 | $0.40 | $0.10 | $0.27 | $-0.14 | $-0.12 | $-0.20 |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.16% | 1.15% | 0.79% | 1.24% | 1.14% | 2.11% | 1.45% | -0.68% | 3.01% | 6.12% | -1.37% | 15.42% | 10.43% | 8.83% |
According to 4 Wall Street analysts, Murphy Oil's projected average Quarter EPS for Mar 24 is $0.83, with a low estimate of $0.77 and a high estimate of $0.92. This represents a -28.32% decrease compared to MUR previous annual EPS of $1.16 (Dec 23).
Murphy Oil Peer Comparison by Price Target
| Ticker | Company | Last Closing Price | Avg Price Target | Upside/Downside | Avg Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APA | APA | $23.94 | $43.52 | 81.79% | Buy |
| CIVI | Civitas Resources | $52.95 | $92.63 | 74.94% | Buy |
| DVN | Devon Energy | $39.45 | $64.04 | 62.33% | Buy |
| MTDR | Matador Resources Company | $49.84 | $78.00 | 56.50% | Buy |
| CHRD | Chord Energy | $134.05 | $204.38 | 52.47% | Buy |
| MUR | Murphy Oil | $34.17 | $47.90 | 40.18% | Buy |
| SM | SM Energy Company | $39.16 | $51.64 | 31.87% | Buy |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum | $51.05 | $62.35 | 22.14% | Buy |
| COP | ConocoPhillips | $103.50 | $123.86 | 19.67% | Buy |
| EOG | EOG Resources | $119.37 | $131.79 | 10.40% | Buy |
| RRC | Range Resources | $29.03 | $31.00 | 6.79% | Buy |
| MGY | Magnolia Oil & Gas | $23.84 | $25.31 | 6.17% | Buy |
| FANG | Diamondback Energy | $172.42 | $182.38 | 5.78% | Buy |
MUR Forecast FAQ
Is Murphy Oil a good buy?
Yes, according to 8 Wall Street analysts, Murphy Oil (MUR) is considered a 'Buy'. The rating consensus is based on 0 'Strong Buy' and 4 'Buy' recommendations, accounting for 50.00% of MUR's total ratings.
What is MUR's price target?
Murphy Oil (MUR) average price target is $47.9 with a range of $35 to $55, implying a 40.18% from its last price of $34.17. The data is based on 8 Wall Street analysts who provided a twelve-month price target estimate in the last three months.
Will Murphy Oil stock go up soon?
According to Wall Street analysts' prediction for MUR stock, the company can go up by 40.18% (from the last price of $34.17 to the average price target of $47.9), up by 60.96% based on the highest stock price target, and up by 2.43% based on the lowest stock price target.
Can Murphy Oil stock reach $50?
MUR's highest twelve months analyst stock price target of $55 supports the claim that Murphy Oil can reach $50 in the near future.
What are Murphy Oil's analysts' financial forecasts?
Murphy Oil's analysts financial forecasts for the fiscal year (Dec 2026) are as follows: average revenue is $3.6B (high $3.89B, low $3.38B), average EBITDA is $1.97B (high $2.12B, low $1.85B), average net income is $887.94M (high $981.31M, low $818.9M), average SG&A $195.04M (high $210.82M, low $183.37M), and average EPS is $5.8 (high $6.41, low $5.35). MUR's analysts financial forecasts for the fiscal year (Dec 2027) are as follows: average revenue is $4.79B (high $5.17B, low $4.5B), average EBITDA is $2.62B (high $2.83B, low $2.46B), average net income is $848.09M (high $937.28M, low $782.15M), average SG&A $259.62M (high $280.62M, low $244.09M), and average EPS is $5.54 (high $6.12, low $5.11).
Did the MUR's actual financial results beat the analysts' financial forecasts?
Based on Murphy Oil's last annual report (Dec 2023), the company's revenue was $3.46B, beating the average analysts forecast of $3.34B by 3.60%. Apple's EBITDA was $1.61B, beating the average prediction of $1.45B by 10.66%. The company's net income was $661.56M, beating the average estimation of $401.32M by 64.85%. Apple's SG&A was $0, missing the average forecast of $165.7M by -100.00%. Lastly, the company's EPS was $4.26, beating the average prediction of $4.21 by 1.25%. In terms of the last quarterly report (Dec 2023), Murphy Oil's revenue was $844.2M, missing the average analysts' forecast of $852.24M by -0.94%. The company's EBITDA was $334.49M, missing the average prediction of $465.71M by -28.18%. Murphy Oil's net income was $178.41M, beating the average estimation of $153.61M by 16.15%. The company's SG&A was $0, missing the average forecast of $46.22M by -100.00%. Lastly, the company's EPS was $1.16, beating the average prediction of $1 by 15.65%