Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) Stock Forecast, Price Target & Predictions

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AGIO Stock Forecast

Agios Pharmaceuticals stock forecast is as follows: an average price target of $48.00 (represents a -10.75% downside from AGIO’s last price of $53.78) and a rating consensus of 'Buy', based on 7 wall street analysts offering a 1-year stock forecast.

AGIO Price Target

The average price target for Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) is $48.00 based on 1-year price targets from 7 Wall Street analysts in the past 3 months, with a price target range of $70.00 to $32.00. This represents a potential -10.75% downside from AGIO's last price of $53.78.

AGIO Analyst Ratings

Buy

According to 7 Wall Street analysts, Agios Pharmaceuticals's rating consensus is 'Buy'. The analyst rating breakdown for AGIO stock is 0 'Strong Buy' (0.00%), 4 'Buy' (57.14%), 3 'Hold' (42.86%), 0 'Sell' (0.00%), and 0 'Strong Sell' (0.00%).

Agios Pharmaceuticals Price Target by Analyst

Date	Analyst	Company	Price Target	Price when Published	Price Target/Price when Published	Price Target/Last Closing Price
Oct 31, 2024	Danielle Brill	Raymond James	$51.00	$44.43	14.79%	-5.17%
Sep 27, 2024	Andrew Berens	Leerink Partners	$56.00	$45.61	22.78%	4.13%
Sep 10, 2024	Chris Raymond	Raymond James	$56.00	$44.05	27.13%	4.13%
Jun 17, 2024	Chris Raymond	Raymond James	$55.00	$43.42	26.67%	2.27%
Jun 03, 2024	Gregory Renza	RBC Capital	$53.00	$44.26	19.75%	-1.45%
May 28, 2024	Chris Raymond	Raymond James	$45.00	$38.39	17.22%	-16.33%
Feb 03, 2023	-	Piper Sandler	$41.00	$30.18	35.85%	-23.76%
Dec 01, 2022	-	J.P. Morgan	$33.00	$29.46	12.02%	-38.64%
Nov 17, 2022	-	Goldman Sachs	$32.00	$27.13	17.95%	-40.50%
Apr 30, 2021	Peter Lawson	Barclays	$70.00	$55.80	25.45%	30.16%

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The latest Agios Pharmaceuticals stock forecast, released on Oct 31, 2024 by Danielle Brill from Raymond James, set a price target of $51.00, which represents a 14.79% increase from the stock price at the time of the forecast ($44.43), and a -5.17% decrease from AGIO last price ($53.78).

Agios Pharmaceuticals Price Target by Period

	1M	3M	12M
# Anlaysts	1	3	6
Avg Price Target	$51.00	$54.33	$52.67
Last Closing Price	$53.78	$53.78	$53.78
Upside/Downside	-5.17%	1.02%	-2.06%

In the current month, the average price target of Agios Pharmaceuticals stock is $51.00, according to 1 Wall Street analyst offering twelve months forecast. The average price target represents a -5.17% decrease as opposed to Agios Pharmaceuticals's last price of $53.78. This month's average price target is down -6.13% compared to last quarter, and down -3.17% compared to last year.

Analyst Ratings Upgrades/Downgrades

Date	Company	Previous Rating	New Rating	Rating Change
Oct 31, 2024	Raymond James	Outperform	Outperform	Hold
Oct 10, 2024	RBC Capital	Market Perform	Market Perform	Hold
Sep 27, 2024	Leerink Partners	-	Market Perform	Downgrade
Sep 10, 2024	Piper Sandler	Overweight	Overweight	Hold
Jun 03, 2024	RBC Capital	Outperform	Outperform	Hold
May 28, 2024	Cowen & Co.	Buy	Buy	Hold
May 28, 2024	Piper Sandler	Overweight	Overweight	Hold
Jun 27, 2023	RBC Capital	Outperform	Outperform	Hold
Feb 03, 2023	Piper Sandler	-	Overweight	Initialise
Nov 17, 2022	Goldman Sachs	Sell	Neutral	Upgrade

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Agios Pharmaceuticals's last stock rating was published by Raymond James on Oct 31, 2024. The company gave AGIO a "Outperform" rating, the same as its previous rate.

Agios Pharmaceuticals Financial Forecast

Agios Pharmaceuticals Revenue Forecast

	Dec 25	Sep 25	Jun 25	Mar 25	Dec 24	Sep 24	Jun 24	Mar 24	Dec 23	Sep 23	Jun 23	Mar 23	Dec 22	Sep 22	Jun 22	Mar 22	Dec 21	Sep 21	Jun 21	Mar 21	Dec 20	Sep 20	Jun 20	Mar 20	Dec 19	Sep 19	Jun 19	Mar 19	Mar 18	Mar 17
Revenue	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	$7.40M	$6.71M	$5.61M	$4.31M	$3.52M	$5.58M	$832.00K	-	-	-	-	$44.05M	$34.71M	$37.35M	$87.10M	$35.44M	$26.02M	$26.22M	$30.23M	$8.76M	$10.51M
Avg Forecast	$30.92M	$12.60M	$10.92M	$10.13M	$9.31M	$9.44M	$9.34M	$8.37M	$7.92M	$7.53M	$6.46M	$5.24M	$4.54M	$5.27M	$2.91M	$2.71M	$614.70K	$2.55M	$2.49M	$47.23M	$39.86M	$38.12M	$37.14M	$31.12M	$33.72M	$33.13M	$27.01M	$22.69M	$8.76M	$11.52M
High Forecast	$36.09M	$14.71M	$12.75M	$12.05M	$10.55M	$9.65M	$9.34M	$8.64M	$9.25M	$8.69M	$7.54M	$6.12M	$5.29M	$5.27M	$2.91M	$2.71M	$614.70K	$2.55M	$2.49M	$47.23M	$39.86M	$38.12M	$37.14M	$31.12M	$33.72M	$33.13M	$27.01M	$22.69M	$10.51M	$13.82M
Low Forecast	$25.87M	$10.55M	$9.14M	$7.90M	$8.00M	$9.22M	$9.34M	$8.10M	$6.63M	$6.91M	$5.41M	$4.39M	$3.79M	$5.27M	$2.91M	$2.71M	$614.70K	$2.55M	$2.49M	$47.23M	$39.86M	$38.12M	$37.14M	$31.12M	$33.72M	$33.13M	$27.01M	$22.69M	$7.01M	$9.21M
# Analysts	1	1	1	3	6	3	3	3	3	6	3	3	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	5	9	6	4	4	7	4	11	18
Surprise %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.98%	1.04%	1.07%	0.95%	0.67%	1.92%	0.31%	-	-	-	-	1.11%	0.91%	1.01%	2.80%	1.05%	0.79%	0.97%	1.33%	1.00%	0.91%

Agios Pharmaceuticals's average Quarter revenue forecast for Dec 23 based on 3 analysts is $7.92M, with a low forecast of $6.63M, and a high forecast of $9.25M. AGIO's average Quarter revenue forecast represents a 7.07% increase compared to the company's last Quarter revenue of $7.40M (Sep 23).

Agios Pharmaceuticals EBITDA Forecast

	Dec 25	Sep 25	Jun 25	Mar 25	Dec 24	Sep 24	Jun 24	Mar 24	Dec 23	Sep 23	Jun 23	Mar 23	Dec 22	Sep 22	Jun 22	Mar 22	Dec 21	Sep 21	Jun 21	Mar 21	Dec 20	Sep 20	Jun 20	Mar 20	Dec 19	Sep 19	Jun 19	Mar 19	Mar 18	Mar 17
# Analysts	1	1	1	3	6	3	3	3	3	6	3	3	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	5	9	6	4	4	7	4	11	18
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	$-100.90M	$-93.70M	$-90.61M	$-225.21M	$-93.55M	$-98.05M	$-101.37M	$-92.09M	$-86.30M	$-83.96M	$1.88B	$-88.97M	$-86.81M	$-86.00M	$-34.85M	$-96.81M	$-101.20M	$-103.84M	$-86.67M	$-85.91M	$-63.69M
Avg Forecast	$-18.55M	$-7.56M	$-6.55M	$-6.08M	$-5.59M	$-5.66M	$-5.61M	$-83.18M	$-4.75M	$-4.52M	$-3.88M	$-88.96M	$294.38K	$-3.16M	$-1.74M	$-95.14M	$-368.82K	$-1.53M	$-1.49M	$-1.79B	$-23.92M	$-22.87M	$-22.28M	$-55.99M	$-20.23M	$-19.88M	$-16.20M	$-99.40M	$-89.10M	$-70.24M
High Forecast	$-15.52M	$-6.33M	$-5.48M	$-4.74M	$-4.80M	$-5.53M	$-5.61M	$-66.54M	$-3.98M	$-4.15M	$-3.24M	$-71.17M	$353.26K	$-3.16M	$-1.74M	$-76.12M	$-368.82K	$-1.53M	$-1.49M	$-1.43B	$-23.92M	$-22.87M	$-22.28M	$-44.80M	$-20.23M	$-19.88M	$-16.20M	$-79.52M	$-71.28M	$-56.19M
Low Forecast	$-21.65M	$-8.83M	$-7.65M	$-7.23M	$-6.33M	$-5.79M	$-5.61M	$-99.81M	$-5.55M	$-5.22M	$-4.53M	$-106.75M	$235.51K	$-3.16M	$-1.74M	$-114.17M	$-368.82K	$-1.53M	$-1.49M	$-2.15B	$-23.92M	$-22.87M	$-22.28M	$-67.19M	$-20.23M	$-19.88M	$-16.20M	$-119.28M	$-106.92M	$-84.29M
Surprise %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	22.34%	24.16%	1.02%	-765.02%	29.60%	56.25%	1.07%	249.70%	56.36%	56.20%	-1.05%	3.72%	3.80%	3.86%	0.62%	4.78%	5.09%	6.41%	0.87%	0.96%	0.91%

3 analysts predict AGIO's average Quarter EBITDA for Jun 21 to be $-1.49M, with a high of $-1.49M and a low of $-1.49M. This is -100.08% lower than Agios Pharmaceuticals's previous annual EBITDA (Mar 21) of $1.88B.

Agios Pharmaceuticals Net Income Forecast

	Dec 25	Sep 25	Jun 25	Mar 25	Dec 24	Sep 24	Jun 24	Mar 24	Dec 23	Sep 23	Jun 23	Mar 23	Dec 22	Sep 22	Jun 22	Mar 22	Dec 21	Sep 21	Jun 21	Mar 21	Dec 20	Sep 20	Jun 20	Mar 20	Dec 19	Sep 19	Jun 19	Mar 19	Mar 18	Mar 17
# Analysts	1	1	1	3	6	3	3	3	3	6	3	3	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	5	9	6	4	4	7	4	11	18
Net Income	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	$-91.32M	$-83.81M	$-71.42M	$172.22M	$-72.40M	$-85.97M	$-88.40M	$-98.92M	$-88.77M	$-86.22M	$1.87B	$-97.66M	$-98.98M	$-90.48M	$-40.26M	$-102.35M	$-106.17M	$-109.87M	$-93.08M	$-90.83M	$-66.17M
Avg Forecast	$-80.35M	$-97.23M	$-98.28M	$-94.78M	$-98.30M	$889.10M	$-93.59M	$-86.06M	$-96.28M	$-99.48M	$-91.23M	$-92.04M	$-79.99M	$-100.22M	$-99.22M	$-98.44M	$-94.55M	$-89.01M	$-75.29M	$37.81B	$-74.25M	$-77.20M	$-77.46M	$-59.66M	$-96.35M	$-102.12M	$-96.55M	$-101.59M	$-90.83M	$-71.97M
High Forecast	$-63.29M	$-76.59M	$-77.42M	$-86.00M	$-89.10M	$1.08B	$-73.72M	$-68.85M	$-75.85M	$-81.20M	$-71.86M	$-73.63M	$-63.01M	$-100.22M	$-99.22M	$-78.75M	$-94.55M	$-89.01M	$-75.29M	$45.38B	$-74.25M	$-77.20M	$-77.46M	$-47.73M	$-96.35M	$-102.12M	$-96.55M	$-81.27M	$-72.66M	$-57.58M
Low Forecast	$-97.81M	$-118.36M	$-119.64M	$-98.87M	$-106.92M	$700.36M	$-113.93M	$-103.27M	$-117.21M	$-104.86M	$-111.05M	$-110.45M	$-97.37M	$-100.22M	$-99.22M	$-118.13M	$-94.55M	$-89.01M	$-75.29M	$30.25B	$-74.25M	$-77.20M	$-77.46M	$-71.59M	$-96.35M	$-102.12M	$-96.55M	$-121.91M	$-108.99M	$-86.36M
Surprise %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.92%	0.92%	0.78%	-2.15%	0.72%	0.87%	0.90%	1.05%	1.00%	1.15%	0.05%	1.32%	1.28%	1.17%	0.67%	1.06%	1.04%	1.14%	0.92%	1.00%	0.92%

Agios Pharmaceuticals's average Quarter net income forecast for Mar 23 is $-92.04M, with a range of $-110.45M to $-73.63M. AGIO's average Quarter net income forecast represents a -153.44% decrease compared to the company's last Quarter net income of $172.22M (Dec 22).

Agios Pharmaceuticals SG&A Forecast

	Dec 25	Sep 25	Jun 25	Mar 25	Dec 24	Sep 24	Jun 24	Mar 24	Dec 23	Sep 23	Jun 23	Mar 23	Dec 22	Sep 22	Jun 22	Mar 22	Dec 21	Sep 21	Jun 21	Mar 21	Dec 20	Sep 20	Jun 20	Mar 20	Dec 19	Sep 19	Jun 19	Mar 19	Mar 18	Mar 17
# Analysts	1	1	1	3	6	3	3	3	3	6	3	3	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	5	9	6	4	4	7	4	11	18
SG&A	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	$25.82M	$30.41M	$28.37M	$32.77M	$29.12M	$28.26M	$31.52M	$31.53M	$27.15M	$29.21M	$33.55M	$39.78M	$34.84M	$35.95M	$38.50M	$34.83M	$33.02M	$32.39M	$31.79M	$24.55M	$14.82M
Avg Forecast	$98.13M	$40.00M	$34.67M	$32.14M	$29.56M	$29.95M	$29.65M	$26.56M	$25.14M	$23.88M	$20.51M	$16.64M	$-95.97K	$16.72M	$9.22M	$8.61M	$1.95M	$8.10M	$7.90M	$149.87M	$126.50M	$120.99M	$117.86M	$98.77M	$107.02M	$105.15M	$85.71M	$72.01M	$27.81M	$36.55M
High Forecast	$114.53M	$46.69M	$40.46M	$38.25M	$33.49M	$30.64M	$29.65M	$27.41M	$29.34M	$27.59M	$23.94M	$19.42M	$-76.78K	$16.72M	$9.22M	$8.61M	$1.95M	$8.10M	$7.90M	$149.87M	$126.50M	$120.99M	$117.86M	$98.77M	$107.02M	$105.15M	$85.71M	$72.01M	$33.37M	$43.87M
Low Forecast	$82.11M	$33.47M	$29.01M	$25.07M	$25.39M	$29.26M	$29.65M	$25.71M	$21.04M	$21.94M	$17.16M	$13.92M	$-115.17K	$16.72M	$9.22M	$8.61M	$1.95M	$8.10M	$7.90M	$149.87M	$126.50M	$120.99M	$117.86M	$98.77M	$107.02M	$105.15M	$85.71M	$72.01M	$22.25M	$29.24M
Surprise %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1.08%	1.48%	1.70%	-341.46%	1.74%	3.07%	3.66%	16.16%	3.35%	3.70%	0.22%	0.31%	0.29%	0.31%	0.39%	0.33%	0.31%	0.38%	0.44%	0.88%	0.41%

Agios Pharmaceuticals's average Quarter SG&A projection for Dec 23 is $25.14M, based on 3 Wall Street analysts, with a range of $21.04M to $29.34M. The forecast indicates a -2.64% fall compared to AGIO last annual SG&A of $25.82M (Sep 23).

Agios Pharmaceuticals EPS Forecast

	Dec 25	Sep 25	Jun 25	Mar 25	Dec 24	Sep 24	Jun 24	Mar 24	Dec 23	Sep 23	Jun 23	Mar 23	Dec 22	Sep 22	Jun 22	Mar 22	Dec 21	Sep 21	Jun 21	Mar 21	Dec 20	Sep 20	Jun 20	Mar 20	Dec 19	Sep 19	Jun 19	Mar 19	Mar 18	Mar 17
# Analysts	1	1	1	3	6	3	3	3	3	6	3	3	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	5	9	6	4	4	7	4	11	18
EPS	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	$-1.64	$-1.51	$-1.29	$3.14	$-1.32	$-1.57	$-1.62	$-1.82	$-1.56	$-1.41	$26.95	$-1.41	$-1.43	$-1.31	$-0.59	$-1.60	$-1.81	$-1.87	$-1.59	$-1.63	$-1.56
Avg Forecast	$-1.38	$-1.66	$-1.68	$-1.62	$-1.68	$15.22	$-1.60	$-1.65	$-1.65	$-1.70	$-1.56	$-1.70	$-1.37	$-1.76	$-1.75	$-1.74	$-1.66	$-1.57	$-1.33	$-1.29	$-1.31	$-1.36	$-1.36	$-1.67	$-1.70	$-1.80	$-1.70	$-1.75	$-1.63	$-1.86
High Forecast	$-1.08	$-1.31	$-1.32	$-1.47	$-1.52	$18.52	$-1.26	$-1.30	$-1.30	$-1.39	$-1.23	$-1.34	$-1.08	$-1.76	$-1.75	$-1.74	$-1.66	$-1.57	$-1.33	$-1.29	$-1.31	$-1.36	$-1.36	$-1.67	$-1.70	$-1.80	$-1.70	$-1.75	$-1.30	$-1.49
Low Forecast	$-1.67	$-2.03	$-2.05	$-1.69	$-1.83	$11.99	$-1.95	$-2.01	$-2.01	$-1.79	$-1.90	$-2.07	$-1.67	$-1.76	$-1.75	$-1.74	$-1.66	$-1.57	$-1.33	$-1.29	$-1.31	$-1.36	$-1.36	$-1.67	$-1.70	$-1.80	$-1.70	$-1.75	$-1.96	$-2.23
Surprise %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.96%	0.97%	0.76%	-2.29%	0.75%	0.90%	0.93%	1.09%	1.00%	1.06%	-20.85%	1.08%	1.05%	0.96%	0.35%	0.94%	1.01%	1.10%	0.91%	1.00%	0.84%

According to 3 Wall Street analysts, Agios Pharmaceuticals's projected average Quarter EPS for Mar 23 is $-1.70, with a low estimate of $-2.07 and a high estimate of $-1.34. This represents a -154.18% decrease compared to AGIO previous annual EPS of $3.14 (Dec 22).

Agios Pharmaceuticals Peer Comparison by Price Target

Ticker	Company	Last Closing Price	Avg Price Target	Upside/Downside	Avg Rating
BDTX	Black Diamond Therapeutics	$2.62	$14.75	462.98%	Buy
RLAY	Relay Therapeutics	$5.11	$19.40	279.65%	Buy
ARVN	Arvinas	$22.48	$71.82	219.48%	Buy
PLRX	Pliant Therapeutics	$12.43	$39.71	219.47%	Buy
CCCC	C4 Therapeutics	$4.31	$13.50	213.23%	Buy
DAWN	Day One Biopharmaceuticals	$13.31	$38.80	191.51%	Buy
FIXX	Q32 Bio	$0.93	$2.70	190.32%	Buy
ANAB	AnaptysBio	$19.00	$52.00	173.68%	Buy
STOK	Stoke Therapeutics	$12.03	$30.60	154.36%	Buy
KALV	KalVista Pharmaceuticals	$9.49	$22.67	138.88%	Buy
CGEM	Cullinan Oncology	$13.86	$31.50	127.27%	Buy
SNDX	Syndax Pharmaceuticals	$15.83	$34.30	116.68%	Buy
COGT	Cogent Biosciences	$8.90	$18.83	111.57%	Buy
MREO	Mereo BioPharma Group	$3.53	$6.75	91.22%	Buy
KROS	Keros Therapeutics	$56.62	$102.60	81.21%	Buy
IDYA	IDEAYA Biosciences	$26.64	$46.58	74.85%	Buy
BMRN	BioMarin Pharmaceutical	$63.42	$101.70	60.36%	Buy
NRIX	Nurix Therapeutics	$22.92	$32.20	40.49%	Buy
MGTX	MeiraGTx	$6.48	$9.00	38.89%	Buy
MRSN	Mersana Therapeutics	$2.21	$3.00	35.75%	Buy
BPMC	Blueprint Medicines	$88.69	$109.71	23.70%	Buy
KYMR	Kymera Therapeutics	$41.96	$51.50	22.74%	Buy
RVMD	Revolution Medicines, Inc. Warrant	$55.13	$60.63	9.98%	Buy
AGIO	Agios Pharmaceuticals	$53.78	$48.00	-10.75%	Buy

AGIO Forecast FAQ

Is Agios Pharmaceuticals a good buy?

Yes, according to 7 Wall Street analysts, Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) is considered a 'Buy'. The rating consensus is based on 0 'Strong Buy' and 4 'Buy' recommendations, accounting for 57.14% of AGIO's total ratings.

What is AGIO's price target?

Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) average price target is $48 with a range of $32 to $70, implying a -10.75% from its last price of $53.78. The data is based on 7 Wall Street analysts who provided a twelve-month price target estimate in the last three months.

Will Agios Pharmaceuticals stock go up soon?

According to Wall Street analysts' prediction for AGIO stock, the company can go down by -10.75% (from the last price of $53.78 to the average price target of $48), up by 30.16% based on the highest stock price target, and down by -40.50% based on the lowest stock price target.

Can Agios Pharmaceuticals stock reach $80?

AGIO's average twelve months analyst stock price target of $48 does not support the claim that Agios Pharmaceuticals can reach $80 in the near future.

What is Agios Pharmaceuticals's current price target trend?

1 Wall Street analyst forecast a $51 price target for Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) this month, down -5.17% from its last price of $53.78. Compared to the last 3 and 12 months, the average price target increased by 1.02% and decreased by -2.06%, respectively.

What are Agios Pharmaceuticals's analysts' financial forecasts?

Agios Pharmaceuticals's analysts financial forecasts for the fiscal year (Dec 2024) are as follows: average revenue is $36.46M (high $38.19M, low $34.66M), average EBITDA is $-100M (high $-82.48M, low $-118M), average net income is $611.15M (high $850.66M, low $376.24M), average SG&A $115.72M (high $121.19M, low $110.01M), and average EPS is $10.28 (high $14.44, low $6.2). AGIO's analysts financial forecasts for the fiscal year (Dec 2025) are as follows: average revenue is $64.57M (high $75.6M, low $53.46M), average EBITDA is $-38.745M (high $-32.075M, low $-45.362M), average net income is $-371M (high $-303M, low $-435M), average SG&A $204.93M (high $239.94M, low $169.65M), and average EPS is $-6.343 (high $-5.191, low $-7.439).

Did the AGIO's actual financial results beat the analysts' financial forecasts?

Based on Agios Pharmaceuticals's last annual report (Dec 2022), the company's revenue was $14.24M, which missed the average analysts forecast of $15.42M by -7.66%. Apple's EBITDA was $-527M, beating the average prediction of $-99.755M by 428.05%. The company's net income was $-74.555M, missing the average estimation of $-378M by -80.27%. Apple's SG&A was $121.67M, beating the average forecast of $34.45M by 253.16%. Lastly, the company's EPS was $-1.36, missing the average prediction of $-6.62 by -79.46%. In terms of the last quarterly report (Sep 2023), Agios Pharmaceuticals's revenue was $7.4M, missing the average analysts' forecast of $7.53M by -1.69%. The company's EBITDA was $-101M, beating the average prediction of $-4.516M by 2134.41%. Agios Pharmaceuticals's net income was $-91.324M, missing the average estimation of $-99.482M by -8.20%. The company's SG&A was $25.82M, beating the average forecast of $23.88M by 8.11%. Lastly, the company's EPS was $-1.64, missing the average prediction of $-1.702 by -3.67%