Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Stock Forecast, Price Target & Predictions

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AAP Stock Forecast

Advance Auto Parts stock forecast is as follows: an average price target of $154.32 (represents a 299.48% upside from AAP’s last price of $38.63) and a rating consensus of 'Hold', based on 15 wall street analysts offering a 1-year stock forecast.

AAP Price Target

The average price target for Advance Auto Parts (AAP) is $154.32 based on 1-year price targets from 15 Wall Street analysts in the past 3 months, with a price target range of $282.00 to $38.00. This represents a potential 299.48% upside from AAP's last price of $38.63.

AAP Analyst Ratings

Hold

According to 15 Wall Street analysts, Advance Auto Parts's rating consensus is 'Hold'. The analyst rating breakdown for AAP stock is 0 'Strong Buy' (0.00%), 5 'Buy' (33.33%), 10 'Hold' (66.67%), 0 'Sell' (0.00%), and 0 'Strong Sell' (0.00%).

Advance Auto Parts Price Target by Analyst

Date	Analyst	Company	Price Target	Price when Published	Price Target/Price when Published	Price Target/Last Closing Price
Nov 15, 2024	Scot Ciccarelli	Truist Financial	$39.00	$38.71	0.75%	0.96%
Sep 12, 2024	David Bellinger	Mizuho Securities	$38.00	$39.12	-2.85%	-1.63%
Aug 26, 2024	David Bellinger	Mizuho Securities	$45.00	$49.64	-9.35%	16.49%
Aug 23, 2024	Christopher Horvers	J.P. Morgan	$43.00	$49.15	-12.51%	11.31%
Aug 23, 2024	Bret Jordan	Jefferies	$85.00	$49.63	71.28%	120.04%
Aug 22, 2024	Laura Champine	Wedbush	$65.00	$61.92	4.97%	68.26%
Aug 22, 2024	Christopher Horvers	J.P. Morgan	$55.00	$61.92	-11.18%	42.38%
Jun 10, 2024	David Bellinger	Mizuho Securities	$64.00	$64.58	-0.90%	65.67%
May 30, 2024	Chris McNally	Evercore ISI	$72.00	$65.39	10.11%	86.38%
May 30, 2024	Scot Ciccarelli	Truist Financial	$63.00	$65.50	-3.82%	63.09%

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The latest Advance Auto Parts stock forecast, released on Nov 15, 2024 by Scot Ciccarelli from Truist Financial, set a price target of $39.00, which represents a 0.75% increase from the stock price at the time of the forecast ($38.71), and a 0.96% increase from AAP last price ($38.63).

Advance Auto Parts Price Target by Period

	1M	3M	12M
# Anlaysts	1	7	14
Avg Price Target	$39.00	$52.86	$60.21
Last Closing Price	$38.63	$38.63	$38.63
Upside/Downside	0.96%	36.84%	55.86%

In the current month, the average price target of Advance Auto Parts stock is $39.00, according to 1 Wall Street analyst offering twelve months forecast. The average price target represents a 0.96% increase as opposed to Advance Auto Parts's last price of $38.63. This month's average price target is down -26.22% compared to last quarter, and down -35.23% compared to last year.

Analyst Ratings Upgrades/Downgrades

Date	Company	Previous Rating	New Rating	Rating Change
Oct 15, 2024	Wells Fargo	Equal-Weight	Equal-Weight	Hold
Oct 15, 2024	Wedbush	Hold	Outperform	Upgrade
Sep 12, 2024	Wedbush	Hold	Hold	Hold
Aug 26, 2024	Wedbush	Sector Perform	Sector Perform	Hold
Aug 26, 2024	UBS	Underperform	Underperform	Hold
Aug 23, 2024	Cowen & Co.	Hold	Hold	Hold
Aug 23, 2024	Jefferies	Buy	Buy	Hold
Aug 22, 2024	Wedbush	Neutral	Neutral	Hold
Aug 22, 2024	UBS	Neutral	Neutral	Hold
May 30, 2024	Evercore ISI	Positive	Positive	Hold

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Advance Auto Parts's last stock rating was published by Wells Fargo on Oct 15, 2024. The company gave AAP a "Equal-Weight" rating, the same as its previous rate.

Advance Auto Parts Financial Forecast

Advance Auto Parts Revenue Forecast

	Jan 27	Oct 26	Jul 26	Apr 26	Jan 26	Oct 25	Jul 25	Apr 25	Jan 25	Oct 24	Jul 24	Apr 24	Jan 24	Oct 23	Jul 23	Apr 23	Jan 23	Oct 22	Jul 22	Apr 22	Jan 22	Oct 21	Jul 21	Jul 20	Jul 19	Jul 18	Jul 17	Apr 16	Apr 15	Jul 14
Revenue	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	$3.42B	-	-	$2.67B	$3.37B	-	-	$2.65B	$2.50B	$2.33B	$2.33B	$2.26B	-	-	$2.35B
Avg Forecast	$1.88B	$2.03B	$2.03B	$2.59B	$1.96B	$2.10B	$2.14B	$2.79B	$2.33B	$2.15B	$2.08B	$2.62B	$2.47B	$2.68B	$2.37B	$2.58B	$2.37B	$2.58B	$3.39B	$2.48B	$2.12B	$2.30B	$3.03B	$5.13B	$2.82B	$2.70B	$3.92B	$3.09B	$3.15B	$2.85B
High Forecast	$1.96B	$2.11B	$2.11B	$2.70B	$2.04B	$2.19B	$2.23B	$2.85B	$2.46B	$2.24B	$2.17B	$2.65B	$2.51B	$2.79B	$2.47B	$2.69B	$2.47B	$2.58B	$4.07B	$2.48B	$2.12B	$2.30B	$3.64B	$6.15B	$3.38B	$3.24B	$4.70B	$3.70B	$3.78B	$3.42B
Low Forecast	$1.78B	$1.92B	$1.92B	$2.45B	$1.85B	$1.99B	$2.02B	$2.73B	$1.97B	$2.03B	$1.97B	$2.59B	$2.45B	$2.53B	$2.24B	$2.44B	$2.24B	$2.58B	$2.71B	$2.48B	$2.12B	$2.30B	$2.43B	$4.10B	$2.26B	$2.16B	$3.14B	$2.47B	$2.52B	$2.28B
# Analysts	7	6	4	4	6	4	3	9	12	6	8	7	14	10	7	12	7	6	13	5	5	4	9	15	10	11	9	11	14	18
Surprise %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1.32%	-	-	0.79%	1.36%	-	-	0.87%	0.49%	0.83%	0.86%	0.58%	-	-	0.82%

Advance Auto Parts's average Quarter revenue forecast for Jul 23 based on 7 analysts is $2.37B, with a low forecast of $2.24B, and a high forecast of $2.47B. AAP's average Quarter revenue forecast represents a -30.62% decrease compared to the company's last Quarter revenue of $3.42B (Apr 23).

Advance Auto Parts EBITDA Forecast

	Jan 27	Oct 26	Jul 26	Apr 26	Jan 26	Oct 25	Jul 25	Apr 25	Jan 25	Oct 24	Jul 24	Apr 24	Jan 24	Oct 23	Jul 23	Apr 23	Jan 23	Oct 22	Jul 22	Apr 22	Jan 22	Oct 21	Jul 21	Jul 20	Jul 19	Jul 18	Jul 17	Apr 16	Apr 15	Jul 14
# Analysts	7	6	4	4	6	4	3	9	12	6	8	7	14	10	7	12	7	6	13	5	5	4	9	15	10	11	9	11	14	18
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	$181.88M	-	-	$264.08M	$288.99M	-	-	$304.13M	$322.60M	$228.26M	$226.88M	$207.65M	-	-	$305.38M
Avg Forecast	$154.22M	$166.45M	$166.31M	$212.58M	$160.65M	$172.67M	$175.43M	$228.85M	$191.28M	$176.34M	$170.72M	$442.47M	$202.77M	$219.80M	$194.66M	$402.24M	$182.59M	$216.53M	$283.15M	$207.85M	$177.95M	$193.01M	$306.00M	$200.33M	$262.69M	$259.65M	$307.62M	$365.68M	$356.35M	$307.53M
High Forecast	$160.77M	$173.51M	$173.37M	$221.60M	$167.47M	$180.00M	$182.87M	$234.18M	$201.95M	$183.82M	$177.96M	$530.96M	$206.06M	$229.13M	$202.92M	$482.69M	$219.11M	$216.53M	$339.78M	$207.85M	$177.95M	$193.01M	$367.21M	$240.40M	$315.22M	$311.58M	$369.15M	$438.81M	$427.62M	$369.04M
Low Forecast	$145.78M	$157.34M	$157.21M	$200.95M	$151.86M	$163.22M	$165.83M	$224.18M	$161.72M	$166.69M	$161.38M	$353.97M	$201.13M	$207.78M	$184.01M	$321.80M	$146.07M	$216.53M	$226.52M	$207.85M	$177.95M	$193.01M	$244.80M	$160.27M	$210.15M	$207.72M	$246.10M	$292.54M	$285.08M	$246.03M
Surprise %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.45%	-	-	0.93%	1.39%	-	-	0.99%	1.61%	0.87%	0.87%	0.68%	-	-	0.99%

7 analysts predict AAP's average Quarter EBITDA for Jul 23 to be $194.66M, with a high of $202.92M and a low of $184.01M. This is 7.03% upper than Advance Auto Parts's previous annual EBITDA (Apr 23) of $181.88M.

Advance Auto Parts Net Income Forecast

	Jan 27	Oct 26	Jul 26	Apr 26	Jan 26	Oct 25	Jul 25	Apr 25	Jan 25	Oct 24	Jul 24	Apr 24	Jan 24	Oct 23	Jul 23	Apr 23	Jan 23	Oct 22	Jul 22	Apr 22	Jan 22	Oct 21	Jul 21	Jul 20	Jul 19	Jul 18	Jul 17	Apr 16	Apr 15	Jul 14
# Analysts	7	6	4	4	6	4	3	9	12	6	8	7	14	10	7	12	7	6	13	5	5	4	9	15	10	11	9	11	14	18
Net Income	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	$42.65M	-	-	$144.40M	$139.79M	-	-	$178.70M	$189.96M	$124.82M	$117.84M	$87.05M	-	-	$139.49M
Avg Forecast	$9.40M	$61.42M	$61.35M	$64.33M	$265.49K	$42.44M	$40.31M	$29.12M	$3.00M	$92.09M	$-51.64M	$198.82M	$14.38M	$86.44M	$117.77M	$180.74M	$85.28M	$172.01M	$140.57M	$161.74M	$80.71M	$123.10M	$170.23M	$57.82M	$135.83M	$127.68M	$136.37M	$164.31M	$153.49M	$141.55M
High Forecast	$9.92M	$64.80M	$64.74M	$67.87M	$280.13K	$44.78M	$42.54M	$44.60M	$34.14M	$97.17M	$-47.97M	$238.58M	$29.95M	$88.06M	$124.26M	$216.89M	$102.33M	$172.01M	$168.68M	$161.74M	$80.71M	$123.10M	$204.28M	$69.39M	$163.00M	$153.22M	$163.64M	$197.17M	$184.18M	$169.85M
Low Forecast	$8.74M	$57.05M	$56.99M	$59.75M	$246.60K	$39.42M	$37.45M	$20.27M	$-88.65M	$85.54M	$-54.49M	$159.05M	$4.19M	$84.81M	$109.39M	$144.59M	$68.22M	$172.01M	$112.46M	$161.74M	$80.71M	$123.10M	$136.19M	$46.26M	$108.66M	$102.14M	$109.09M	$131.45M	$122.79M	$113.24M
Surprise %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.24%	-	-	1.03%	0.86%	-	-	1.05%	3.29%	0.92%	0.92%	0.64%	-	-	0.99%

Advance Auto Parts's average Quarter net income forecast for Jul 23 is $117.77M, with a range of $109.39M to $124.26M. AAP's average Quarter net income forecast represents a 176.12% increase compared to the company's last Quarter net income of $42.65M (Apr 23).

Advance Auto Parts SG&A Forecast

	Jan 27	Oct 26	Jul 26	Apr 26	Jan 26	Oct 25	Jul 25	Apr 25	Jan 25	Oct 24	Jul 24	Apr 24	Jan 24	Oct 23	Jul 23	Apr 23	Jan 23	Oct 22	Jul 22	Apr 22	Jan 22	Oct 21	Jul 21	Jul 20	Jul 19	Jul 18	Jul 17	Apr 16	Apr 15	Jul 14
# Analysts	7	6	4	4	6	4	3	9	12	6	8	7	14	10	7	12	7	6	13	5	5	4	9	15	10	11	9	11	14	18
SG&A	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	$1.38B	-	-	$984.04M	$1.30B	-	-	$944.32M	$833.87M	$838.67M	$844.02M	$846.38M	-	-	$821.43M
Avg Forecast	$706.74M	$762.79M	$762.15M	$974.20M	$736.23M	$791.29M	$803.92M	$1.05B	$876.57M	$808.10M	$782.35M	$1.35B	$929.24M	$1.01B	$892.06M	$1.23B	$1.00B	$971.23M	$1.31B	$932.28M	$798.17M	$865.72M	$1.13B	$1.45B	$1.05B	$1.00B	$1.38B	$1.12B	$1.17B	$1.05B
High Forecast	$736.73M	$795.16M	$794.49M	$1.02B	$767.47M	$824.87M	$838.04M	$1.07B	$925.48M	$842.39M	$815.55M	$1.62B	$944.29M	$1.05B	$929.91M	$1.47B	$1.20B	$971.23M	$1.57B	$932.28M	$798.17M	$865.72M	$1.35B	$1.74B	$1.25B	$1.20B	$1.65B	$1.34B	$1.41B	$1.26B
Low Forecast	$668.08M	$721.06M	$720.45M	$920.90M	$695.95M	$748.00M	$759.94M	$1.03B	$741.13M	$763.88M	$739.54M	$1.08B	$921.71M	$952.18M	$843.25M	$982.29M	$801.63M	$971.23M	$1.05B	$932.28M	$798.17M	$865.72M	$902.98M	$1.16B	$836.27M	$802.53M	$1.10B	$892.99M	$937.96M	$841.28M
Surprise %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1.12%	-	-	0.75%	1.40%	-	-	0.84%	0.57%	0.80%	0.84%	0.61%	-	-	0.78%

Advance Auto Parts's average Quarter SG&A projection for Jul 23 is $892.06M, based on 7 Wall Street analysts, with a range of $843.25M to $929.91M. The forecast indicates a -35.39% fall compared to AAP last annual SG&A of $1.38B (Apr 23).

Advance Auto Parts EPS Forecast

	Jan 27	Oct 26	Jul 26	Apr 26	Jan 26	Oct 25	Jul 25	Apr 25	Jan 25	Oct 24	Jul 24	Apr 24	Jan 24	Oct 23	Jul 23	Apr 23	Jan 23	Oct 22	Jul 22	Apr 22	Jan 22	Oct 21	Jul 21	Jul 20	Jul 19	Jul 18	Jul 17	Apr 16	Apr 15	Jul 14
# Analysts	7	6	4	4	6	4	3	9	12	6	8	7	14	10	7	12	7	6	13	5	5	4	9	15	10	11	9	11	14	18
EPS	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	$0.72	-	-	$2.39	$2.28	-	-	$2.76	$2.75	$1.74	$1.59	$1.18	-	-	$1.91
Avg Forecast	$0.16	$1.03	$1.02	$1.07	-	$0.71	$0.67	$0.49	$0.05	$1.54	$-0.86	$0.49	$0.24	$1.44	$1.97	$2.87	$1.99	$2.87	$1.15	$2.70	$1.35	$2.05	$1.01	$2.30	$2.24	$1.84	$2.74	$2.69	$2.57	$2.07
High Forecast	$0.17	$1.08	$1.08	$1.13	-	$0.75	$0.71	$0.74	$0.57	$1.62	$-0.80	$0.52	$0.50	$1.47	$2.07	$3.03	$2.00	$2.87	$1.15	$2.70	$1.35	$2.05	$1.01	$2.75	$2.69	$2.21	$3.29	$3.23	$3.08	$2.48
Low Forecast	$0.15	$0.95	$0.95	$1.00	-	$0.66	$0.63	$0.34	$-1.48	$1.43	$-0.91	$0.46	$0.07	$1.42	$1.83	$2.67	$1.97	$2.87	$1.15	$2.70	$1.35	$2.05	$1.01	$1.84	$1.79	$1.47	$2.19	$2.15	$2.06	$1.66
Surprise %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.25%	-	-	2.07%	0.84%	-	-	2.73%	1.20%	0.78%	0.86%	0.43%	-	-	0.92%

According to 7 Wall Street analysts, Advance Auto Parts's projected average Quarter EPS for Jul 23 is $1.97, with a low estimate of $1.83 and a high estimate of $2.07. This represents a 173.05% increase compared to AAP previous annual EPS of $0.72 (Apr 23).

Advance Auto Parts Peer Comparison by Price Target

Ticker	Company	Last Closing Price	Avg Price Target	Upside/Downside	Avg Rating
AAP	Advance Auto Parts	$38.63	$154.32	299.48%	Hold
FIVE	Five Below	$83.10	$148.32	78.48%	Buy
ULTA	Ulta Beauty	$343.26	$446.92	30.20%	Hold
GPC	Genuine Parts Company	$120.76	$156.60	29.68%	Hold
RH	RH	$336.80	$414.67	23.12%	Buy
DKS	DICK'S Sporting Goods	$194.18	$225.90	16.34%	Buy
WSM	Williams-Sonoma	$175.04	$201.11	14.89%	Hold
BBY	Best Buy	$86.77	$96.19	10.86%	Buy
TSCO	Tractor Supply Company	$270.00	$261.32	-3.21%	Buy
AZO	AutoZone	$3.05K	$2.91K	-4.52%	Buy
ORLY	O'Reilly Automotive	$1.19K	$931.00	-21.69%	Buy

AAP Forecast FAQ

Is Advance Auto Parts a good buy?

No, according to 15 Wall Street analysts, Advance Auto Parts (AAP) is considered a 'Hold'. The rating consensus is based on 0 'Strong Buy' and 5 'Buy' recommendations, accounting for 33.33% of AAP's total ratings.

What is AAP's price target?

Advance Auto Parts (AAP) average price target is $154.32 with a range of $38 to $282, implying a 299.48% from its last price of $38.63. The data is based on 15 Wall Street analysts who provided a twelve-month price target estimate in the last three months.

Will Advance Auto Parts stock go up soon?

According to Wall Street analysts' prediction for AAP stock, the company can go up by 299.48% (from the last price of $38.63 to the average price target of $154.32), up by 630.00% based on the highest stock price target, and down by -1.63% based on the lowest stock price target.

Can Advance Auto Parts stock reach $60?

AAP's average twelve months analyst stock price target of $154.32 supports the claim that Advance Auto Parts can reach $60 in the near future.

What is Advance Auto Parts's current price target trend?

1 Wall Street analyst forecast a $39 price target for Advance Auto Parts (AAP) this month, up 0.96% from its last price of $38.63. Compared to the last 3 and 12 months, the average price target increased by 36.84% and increased by 55.86%, respectively.

Did the AAP's actual financial results beat the analysts' financial forecasts?

In terms of the last quarterly report (Apr 2023), Advance Auto Parts's revenue was $3.42B, beating the average analysts' forecast of $2.58B by 32.38%. The company's EBITDA was $181.88M, missing the average prediction of $402.24M by -54.78%. Advance Auto Parts's net income was $42.65M, missing the average estimation of $180.74M by -76.40%. The company's SG&A was $1.38B, beating the average forecast of $1.23B by 12.44%. Lastly, the company's EPS was $0.72, missing the average prediction of $2.87 by -74.92%