Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Stock Forecast, Price Target & Predictions
AAP Stock Forecast
Advance Auto Parts stock forecast is as follows: an average price target of $155.73 (represents a 291.68% upside from AAP’s last price of $39.76) and a rating consensus of 'Hold', based on 15 wall street analysts offering a 1-year stock forecast.
AAP Price Target
The average price target for Advance Auto Parts (AAP) is $155.73 based on 1-year price targets from 15 Wall Street analysts in the past 3 months, with a price target range of $282.00 to $43.00. This represents a potential 291.68% upside from AAP's last price of $39.76.
AAP Analyst Ratings
According to 15 Wall Street analysts, Advance Auto Parts's rating consensus is 'Hold'. The analyst rating breakdown for AAP stock is 0 'Strong Buy' (0.00%), 4 'Buy' (26.67%), 11 'Hold' (73.33%), 0 'Sell' (0.00%), and 0 'Strong Sell' (0.00%).
Advance Auto Parts Price Target by Analyst
| Date | Analyst | Company | Price Target | Price when Published | Price Target/Price when Published | Price Target/Last Closing Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2024 | David Bellinger | Mizuho Securities | $45.00 | $49.64 | -9.35% | 13.18% |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Christopher Horvers | J.P. Morgan | $43.00 | $49.15 | -12.51% | 8.15% |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Bret Jordan | Jefferies | $85.00 | $49.63 | 71.28% | 113.78% |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Laura Champine | Wedbush | $65.00 | $61.92 | 4.97% | 63.48% |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Christopher Horvers | J.P. Morgan | $55.00 | $61.92 | -11.18% | 38.33% |
| Jun 10, 2024 | David Bellinger | Mizuho Securities | $64.00 | $64.58 | -0.90% | 60.97% |
| May 30, 2024 | Chris McNally | Evercore ISI | $72.00 | $65.39 | 10.11% | 81.09% |
| May 30, 2024 | Scot Ciccarelli | Truist Financial | $63.00 | $65.50 | -3.82% | 58.45% |
| May 30, 2024 | Steven Shemesh | RBC Capital | $65.00 | $62.48 | 4.03% | 63.48% |
| May 30, 2024 | Michael Baker | D.A. Davidson | $69.00 | $62.48 | 10.44% | 73.54% |
The latest Advance Auto Parts stock forecast, released on Aug 26, 2024 by David Bellinger from Mizuho Securities, set a price target of $45.00, which represents a -9.35% decrease from the stock price at the time of the forecast ($49.64), and a 13.18% increase from AAP last price ($39.76).
Advance Auto Parts Price Target by Period
| 1M | 3M | 12M | |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Anlaysts | 5 | 6 | 12 |
| Avg Price Target | $58.60 | $59.50 | $63.83 |
| Last Closing Price | $39.76 | $39.76 | $39.76 |
| Upside/Downside | 47.38% | 49.65% | 60.54% |
In the current month, the average price target of Advance Auto Parts stock is $58.60, according to 5 Wall Street analysts offering twelve months forecast. The average price target represents a 47.38% increase as opposed to Advance Auto Parts's last price of $39.76. This month's average price target is down -1.51% compared to last quarter, and down -8.19% compared to last year.
Analyst Ratings Upgrades/Downgrades
| Date | Company | Previous Rating | New Rating | Rating Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2024 | UBS | Underperform | Underperform | Hold |
| Aug 26, 2024 | Wedbush | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Hold |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Cowen & Co. | Hold | Hold | Hold |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Hold |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Hold |
| Aug 22, 2024 | UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Hold |
| May 30, 2024 | Evercore ISI | Positive | Positive | Hold |
| May 30, 2024 | RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Hold |
| May 30, 2024 | Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Hold |
| May 29, 2024 | CFRA | Hold | Hold | Hold |
Advance Auto Parts's last stock rating was published by UBS on Aug 26, 2024. The company gave AAP a "Underperform" rating, the same as its previous rate.
Advance Auto Parts Financial Forecast
Advance Auto Parts Revenue Forecast
| Oct 26 | Jul 26 | Apr 26 | Jan 26 | Oct 25 | Jul 25 | Apr 25 | Jan 25 | Oct 24 | Jul 24 | Apr 24 | Jan 24 | Oct 23 | Jun 23 | Apr 23 | Jan 23 | Oct 22 | Jul 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | Jun 20 | Dec 19 | Sep 19 | Jun 19 | Dec 18 | Sep 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $3.42B | - | - | $2.67B | - | $2.37B | $2.62B | - | - | $2.54B | - | $2.11B | $2.31B | - | $2.11B | $2.27B |
| Avg Forecast | $2.57B | $2.55B | $2.78B | $2.79B | $3.51B | $2.41B | $2.63B | $2.64B | $3.35B | $2.43B | $2.65B | $2.46B | $2.68B | $2.42B | $2.64B | $2.37B | $2.58B | $2.37B | $2.48B | $2.12B | $2.30B | $3.03B | $8.39B | $2.40B | $5.13B | $1.74B | $2.26B | $2.82B | $2.03B | $2.11B |
| High Forecast | $2.63B | $2.61B | $2.85B | $2.86B | $3.60B | $2.47B | $2.69B | $2.71B | $3.41B | $2.49B | $2.71B | $2.50B | $2.75B | $2.45B | $2.71B | $2.43B | $2.65B | $2.37B | $2.50B | $2.14B | $2.32B | $3.64B | $10.07B | $2.88B | $6.15B | $2.09B | $2.71B | $3.38B | $2.44B | $2.53B |
| Low Forecast | $2.13B | $2.11B | $2.30B | $2.31B | $2.90B | $2.00B | $2.17B | $2.18B | $3.32B | $2.01B | $2.19B | $2.44B | $2.22B | $2.38B | $2.19B | $1.96B | $2.14B | $2.37B | $2.44B | $2.09B | $2.26B | $2.43B | $6.71B | $1.92B | $4.10B | $1.39B | $1.81B | $2.26B | $1.63B | $1.69B |
| # Analysts | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 19 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.29% | - | - | 1.13% | - | 1.11% | 1.14% | - | - | 1.06% | - | 1.21% | 1.02% | - | 1.04% | 1.08% |
Advance Auto Parts's average Quarter revenue forecast for Jun 23 based on 9 analysts is $2.42B, with a low forecast of $2.38B, and a high forecast of $2.45B. AAP's average Quarter revenue forecast represents a -29.15% decrease compared to the company's last Quarter revenue of $3.42B (Apr 23).
Advance Auto Parts EBITDA Forecast
| Oct 26 | Jul 26 | Apr 26 | Jan 26 | Oct 25 | Jul 25 | Apr 25 | Jan 25 | Oct 24 | Jul 24 | Apr 24 | Jan 24 | Oct 23 | Jun 23 | Apr 23 | Jan 23 | Oct 22 | Jul 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | Jun 20 | Dec 19 | Sep 19 | Jun 19 | Dec 18 | Sep 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 19 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| EBITDA | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $181.88M | - | - | $264.08M | - | $207.21M | $290.43M | - | - | $267.15M | - | $186.68M | $225.49M | - | $137.43M | $215.34M |
| Avg Forecast | $215.31M | $213.58M | $233.39M | $233.72M | $294.21M | $202.30M | $220.35M | $221.31M | $280.59M | $203.40M | $442.47M | $206.64M | $224.57M | $311.46M | $402.24M | $198.88M | $323.87M | $198.40M | $207.85M | $165.99M | $256.03M | $306.00M | $217.73M | $252.09M | $200.33M | $146.58M | $219.99M | $262.69M | $72.43M | $217.06M |
| High Forecast | $220.85M | $219.08M | $239.40M | $239.74M | $301.79M | $207.51M | $226.02M | $227.01M | $285.82M | $208.64M | $530.96M | $209.99M | $230.35M | $373.75M | $482.69M | $204.00M | $388.65M | $198.40M | $209.98M | $199.19M | $307.23M | $367.21M | $261.27M | $302.51M | $240.40M | $175.89M | $263.99M | $315.22M | $86.91M | $260.47M |
| Low Forecast | $178.24M | $176.80M | $193.21M | $193.48M | $243.55M | $167.47M | $182.41M | $183.21M | $278.49M | $168.38M | $353.97M | $204.97M | $185.90M | $249.17M | $321.80M | $164.64M | $259.10M | $198.40M | $204.31M | $132.79M | $204.82M | $244.80M | $174.18M | $201.67M | $160.27M | $117.26M | $175.99M | $210.15M | $57.94M | $173.65M |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.45% | - | - | 1.33% | - | 1.25% | 1.13% | - | - | 1.06% | - | 1.27% | 1.03% | - | 1.90% | 0.99% |
9 analysts predict AAP's average Quarter EBITDA for Jun 23 to be $311.46M, with a high of $373.75M and a low of $249.17M. This is 71.25% upper than Advance Auto Parts's previous annual EBITDA (Apr 23) of $181.88M.
Advance Auto Parts Net Income Forecast
| Oct 26 | Jul 26 | Apr 26 | Jan 26 | Oct 25 | Jul 25 | Apr 25 | Jan 25 | Oct 24 | Jul 24 | Apr 24 | Jan 24 | Oct 23 | Jun 23 | Apr 23 | Jan 23 | Oct 22 | Jul 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | Jun 20 | Dec 19 | Sep 19 | Jun 19 | Dec 18 | Sep 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 19 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| Net Income | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $42.65M | - | - | $144.40M | - | $112.00M | $169.81M | - | - | $147.48M | - | $95.91M | $123.67M | - | $53.44M | $115.84M |
| Avg Forecast | $66.89M | $25.14M | $67.62M | $76.40M | $72.50M | $21.57M | $47.81M | $52.42M | $48.20M | $10.33M | $198.82M | $12.57M | $86.44M | $154.63M | $180.74M | $117.77M | $189.37M | $118.92M | $160.66M | $77.52M | $149.70M | $170.23M | $117.68M | $139.16M | $57.82M | $75.30M | $120.65M | $135.83M | $51.55M | $106.58M |
| High Forecast | $69.13M | $25.98M | $69.89M | $78.96M | $74.93M | $22.29M | $49.42M | $54.17M | $91.52M | $10.68M | $238.58M | $26.19M | $89.34M | $185.55M | $216.89M | $121.71M | $227.24M | $118.92M | $162.81M | $93.03M | $179.63M | $204.28M | $141.22M | $166.99M | $69.39M | $90.37M | $144.78M | $163.00M | $61.86M | $127.89M |
| Low Forecast | $51.92M | $19.52M | $52.49M | $59.30M | $56.27M | $16.74M | $37.11M | $40.68M | $2.79M | $8.02M | $159.05M | $3.67M | $67.09M | $123.70M | $144.59M | $91.41M | $151.49M | $118.92M | $157.11M | $62.02M | $119.76M | $136.19M | $94.15M | $111.33M | $46.26M | $60.24M | $96.52M | $108.66M | $41.24M | $85.26M |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.24% | - | - | 1.21% | - | 1.44% | 1.13% | - | - | 1.06% | - | 1.27% | 1.03% | - | 1.04% | 1.09% |
Advance Auto Parts's average Quarter net income forecast for Jun 23 is $154.63M, with a range of $123.70M to $185.55M. AAP's average Quarter net income forecast represents a 262.54% increase compared to the company's last Quarter net income of $42.65M (Apr 23).
Advance Auto Parts SG&A Forecast
| Oct 26 | Jul 26 | Apr 26 | Jan 26 | Oct 25 | Jul 25 | Apr 25 | Jan 25 | Oct 24 | Jul 24 | Apr 24 | Jan 24 | Oct 23 | Jun 23 | Apr 23 | Jan 23 | Oct 22 | Jul 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | Jun 20 | Dec 19 | Sep 19 | Jun 19 | Dec 18 | Sep 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 19 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| SG&A | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $1.38B | - | - | $984.04M | - | $931.87M | $953.26M | - | - | $871.66M | - | $802.63M | $839.60M | - | $844.39M | $852.69M |
| Avg Forecast | $965.74M | $957.99M | $1.05B | $1.05B | $1.32B | $907.41M | $988.36M | $992.68M | $1.26B | $912.33M | $1.35B | $926.88M | $1.01B | $1.44B | $1.23B | $892.06M | $1.06B | $889.90M | $932.28M | $910.94M | $840.33M | $1.13B | $979.17M | $822.51M | $1.45B | $630.21M | $819.12M | $1.05B | $814.50M | $784.47M |
| High Forecast | $990.61M | $982.66M | $1.07B | $1.08B | $1.35B | $930.78M | $1.01B | $1.02B | $1.28B | $935.83M | $1.62B | $941.89M | $1.03B | $1.73B | $1.47B | $915.03M | $1.28B | $889.90M | $941.86M | $1.09B | $1.01B | $1.35B | $1.18B | $987.01M | $1.74B | $756.26M | $982.94M | $1.25B | $977.40M | $941.37M |
| Low Forecast | $799.46M | $793.04M | $866.61M | $867.83M | $1.09B | $751.17M | $818.19M | $821.76M | $1.25B | $755.25M | $1.08B | $919.37M | $833.85M | $1.15B | $982.29M | $738.46M | $850.41M | $889.90M | $916.42M | $728.75M | $672.26M | $902.98M | $783.34M | $658.00M | $1.16B | $504.17M | $655.30M | $836.27M | $651.60M | $627.58M |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.12% | - | - | 1.11% | - | 1.02% | 1.13% | - | - | 1.06% | - | 1.27% | 1.03% | - | 1.04% | 1.09% |
Advance Auto Parts's average Quarter SG&A projection for Jun 23 is $1.44B, based on 9 Wall Street analysts, with a range of $1.15B to $1.73B. The forecast indicates a 4.41% rise compared to AAP last annual SG&A of $1.38B (Apr 23).
Advance Auto Parts EPS Forecast
| Oct 26 | Jul 26 | Apr 26 | Jan 26 | Oct 25 | Jul 25 | Apr 25 | Jan 25 | Oct 24 | Jul 24 | Apr 24 | Jan 24 | Oct 23 | Jun 23 | Apr 23 | Jan 23 | Oct 22 | Jul 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | Jun 20 | Dec 19 | Sep 19 | Jun 19 | Dec 18 | Sep 18 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 19 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| EPS | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $0.72 | - | - | $2.39 | - | $1.66 | $2.70 | - | - | $2.14 | - | $1.39 | $1.76 | - | $0.74 | $1.57 |
| Avg Forecast | $1.12 | $0.42 | $1.13 | $1.28 | $1.21 | $0.36 | $0.80 | $0.88 | $0.80 | $0.17 | $0.54 | $0.21 | $1.44 | $2.41 | $3.27 | $1.97 | $2.87 | $1.99 | $2.70 | $1.35 | $2.05 | $1.01 | $2.07 | $2.51 | $2.30 | $1.06 | $2.00 | $2.24 | $1.09 | $1.61 |
| High Forecast | $1.15 | $0.43 | $1.17 | $1.32 | $1.25 | $0.37 | $0.82 | $0.90 | $1.53 | $0.18 | $0.56 | $0.44 | $1.49 | $2.45 | $3.38 | $2.03 | $2.97 | $1.99 | $2.74 | $1.37 | $2.08 | $1.02 | $2.48 | $3.01 | $2.75 | $1.27 | $2.40 | $2.69 | $1.31 | $1.93 |
| Low Forecast | $0.87 | $0.33 | $0.88 | $0.99 | $0.94 | $0.28 | $0.62 | $0.68 | $0.05 | $0.13 | $0.42 | $0.06 | $1.12 | $2.36 | $2.54 | $1.53 | $2.23 | $1.99 | $2.64 | $1.32 | $2.01 | $0.99 | $1.66 | $2.01 | $1.84 | $0.85 | $1.60 | $1.79 | $0.87 | $1.29 |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.22% | - | - | 1.20% | - | 1.23% | 1.31% | - | - | 0.85% | - | 1.31% | 0.88% | - | 0.68% | 0.98% |
According to 9 Wall Street analysts, Advance Auto Parts's projected average Quarter EPS for Jun 23 is $2.41, with a low estimate of $2.36 and a high estimate of $2.45. This represents a 235.27% increase compared to AAP previous annual EPS of $0.72 (Apr 23).
Advance Auto Parts Peer Comparison by Price Target
| Ticker | Company | Last Closing Price | Avg Price Target | Upside/Downside | Avg Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAP | Advance Auto Parts | $39.76 | $155.73 | 291.68% | Hold |
| FIVE | Five Below | $79.17 | $148.32 | 87.34% | Buy |
| RH | RH | $248.09 | $424.36 | 71.05% | Buy |
| WSM | Williams-Sonoma | $130.43 | $208.00 | 59.47% | Hold |
| ULTA | Ulta Beauty | $367.59 | $470.92 | 28.11% | Hold |
| GPC | Genuine Parts Company | $134.30 | $170.75 | 27.14% | Hold |
| DKS | DICK'S Sporting Goods | $208.04 | $225.90 | 8.58% | Buy |
| BBY | Best Buy | $98.50 | $96.00 | -2.54% | Buy |
| TSCO | Tractor Supply Company | $270.59 | $245.76 | -9.18% | Buy |
| AZO | AutoZone | $3.09K | $2.72K | -12.12% | Buy |
| ORLY | O'Reilly Automotive | $1.12K | $896.29 | -19.92% | Buy |
AAP Forecast FAQ
Is Advance Auto Parts a good buy?
No, according to 15 Wall Street analysts, Advance Auto Parts (AAP) is considered a 'Hold'. The rating consensus is based on 0 'Strong Buy' and 4 'Buy' recommendations, accounting for 26.67% of AAP's total ratings.
What is AAP's price target?
Advance Auto Parts (AAP) average price target is $155.73 with a range of $43 to $282, implying a 291.68% from its last price of $39.76. The data is based on 15 Wall Street analysts who provided a twelve-month price target estimate in the last three months.
Will Advance Auto Parts stock go up soon?
According to Wall Street analysts' prediction for AAP stock, the company can go up by 291.68% (from the last price of $39.76 to the average price target of $155.73), up by 609.26% based on the highest stock price target, and up by 8.15% based on the lowest stock price target.
Can Advance Auto Parts stock reach $60?
AAP's average twelve months analyst stock price target of $155.73 supports the claim that Advance Auto Parts can reach $60 in the near future.
What is Advance Auto Parts's current price target trend?
5 Wall Street analysts forecast a $58.6 price target for Advance Auto Parts (AAP) this month, up 47.38% from its last price of $39.76. Compared to the last 3 and 12 months, the average price target increased by 49.65% and increased by 60.54%, respectively.
What are Advance Auto Parts's analysts' financial forecasts?
Advance Auto Parts's analysts financial forecasts for the fiscal year (Dec 2020) are as follows: average revenue is $15.92B (high $19.1B, low $12.73B), average EBITDA is $670.15M (high $804.18M, low $536.12M), average net income is $314.67M (high $377.6M, low $251.73M), average SG&A $3.25B (high $3.9B, low $2.6B), and average EPS is $6.88 (high $8.24, low $5.51).
Did the AAP's actual financial results beat the analysts' financial forecasts?
Based on Advance Auto Parts's last annual report (Dec 2021), the company's revenue was $10.11B, beating the average analysts forecast of $7.45B by 35.58%. Apple's EBITDA was $996M, beating the average prediction of $728.02M by 36.81%. The company's net income was $493.02M, beating the average estimation of $397.45M by 24.04%. Apple's SG&A was $3.73B, beating the average forecast of $2.88B by 29.57%. Lastly, the company's EPS was $7.17, beating the average prediction of $4.41 by 62.46%. In terms of the last quarterly report (Apr 2023), Advance Auto Parts's revenue was $3.42B, beating the average analysts' forecast of $2.64B by 29.30%. The company's EBITDA was $181.88M, missing the average prediction of $402.24M by -54.78%. Advance Auto Parts's net income was $42.65M, missing the average estimation of $180.74M by -76.40%. The company's SG&A was $1.38B, beating the average forecast of $1.23B by 12.44%. Lastly, the company's EPS was $0.72, missing the average prediction of $3.27 by -77.97%