Alcoa (AA) Stock Forecast, Price Target & Predictions


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AA Stock Forecast


Alcoa stock forecast is as follows: an average price target of $46.57 (represents a 20.71% upside from AA’s last price of $38.58) and a rating consensus of 'Buy', based on 17 wall street analysts offering a 1-year stock forecast.

AA Price Target


The average price target for Alcoa (AA) is $46.57 based on 1-year price targets from 17 Wall Street analysts in the past 3 months, with a price target range of $52.00 to $38.00. This represents a potential 20.71% upside from AA's last price of $38.58.

AA Analyst Ratings


Buy

According to 17 Wall Street analysts, Alcoa's rating consensus is 'Buy'. The analyst rating breakdown for AA stock is 0 'Strong Buy' (0.00%), 8 'Buy' (47.06%), 8 'Hold' (47.06%), 1 'Sell' (5.88%), and 0 'Strong Sell' (0.00%).

Alcoa Price Target by Analyst


DateAnalystCompanyPrice TargetPrice when PublishedPrice Target/Price when PublishedPrice Target/Last Closing Price
Oct 17, 2024Katja JancicBMO Capital$45.00$42.076.96%16.64%
Oct 17, 2024Derek HernandezB.Riley Financial$50.00$42.0718.85%29.60%
Oct 17, 2024Christopher LaFeminaJefferies$50.00$42.0718.85%29.60%
Oct 09, 2024Timna TannersWolfe Research$41.00$37.738.67%6.27%
Oct 01, 2024Lawson WinderBank of America Securities$52.00$39.4531.83%34.78%
Aug 12, 2024Curt WoodworthUBS$38.00$31.1921.83%-1.50%
Jul 02, 2024Derek HernandezB.Riley Financial$39.00$39.70-1.76%1.09%
Jun 21, 2024Carlos De AlbaMorgan Stanley$50.00$39.6426.14%29.60%
Apr 22, 2024Carlos De AlbaMorgan Stanley$36.50$36.350.41%-5.39%
Apr 18, 2024Katja JancicLoop Capital Markets$37.00$35.474.31%-4.10%
Apr 18, 2024Christopher LaFeminaJefferies$48.00$35.5535.02%24.42%
Apr 18, 2024Derek HernandezB.Riley Financial$31.00$35.55-12.80%-19.65%
Apr 18, 2024Katja JancicBMO Capital$37.00$35.554.08%-4.10%
Oct 19, 2023Katja JancicLoop Capital Markets$28.00$24.5314.15%-27.42%
Feb 01, 2023UBS$50.00$52.23-4.26%29.60%
Dec 09, 2022Morgan Stanley$56.00$47.2818.44%45.15%
Sep 16, 2022Carlos De AlbaMorgan Stanley$66.00$43.1452.99%71.07%
Aug 03, 2022David GaglianoBMO Capital$55.00$48.0514.46%42.56%
Jun 22, 2022Carlos De AlbaMorgan Stanley$55.00$48.9012.47%42.56%
Apr 25, 2022Morgan Stanley$96.00$65.1947.26%148.83%
Apr 11, 2022Curt WoodworthCredit Suisse$82.00$82.53-0.64%112.55%
Mar 26, 2022David ColemanArgus Research$95.00$91.963.31%146.24%
Mar 15, 2022Sathish KasinathanDeutsche Bank$90.00$73.7122.10%133.28%
Feb 14, 2022Carlos De AlbaMorgan Stanley$78.00$73.865.61%102.18%
Jan 20, 2022Lucas PipesB.Riley Financial$55.00$61.18-10.10%42.56%
Jan 20, 2022David GaglianoBMO Capital$65.00$61.186.24%68.48%
Jan 17, 2022Christopher LaFeminaJefferies$75.00$61.3922.17%94.40%

The latest Alcoa stock forecast, released on Oct 17, 2024 by Katja Jancic from BMO Capital, set a price target of $45.00, which represents a 6.96% increase from the stock price at the time of the forecast ($42.07), and a 16.64% increase from AA last price ($38.58).

Alcoa Price Target by Period


1M3M12M
# Anlaysts-513
Avg Price Target-$47.60$42.65
Last Closing Price$38.58$38.58$38.58
Upside/Downside-100.00%23.38%10.55%

In the current month, the average price target of Alcoa stock is -, according to 0 Wall Street analyst offering twelve months forecast. The average price target represents a -100.00% decrease as opposed to Alcoa's last price of $38.58. This month's average price target is down -100.00% compared to last quarter, and down -100.00% compared to last year.

Analyst Ratings Upgrades/Downgrades


DateCompanyPrevious RatingNew RatingRating Change
Dec 11, 2024Morgan StanleyOverweightOverweightHold
Oct 18, 2024Morgan StanleyOverweightOverweightHold
Oct 17, 2024BMO CapitalMarket PerformMarket PerformHold
Oct 17, 2024JefferiesBuyBuyHold
Oct 09, 2024Wolfe ResearchOutperformOutperformHold
Oct 01, 2024Bank of America SecuritiesBuyUpgrade
Sep 19, 2024UBSBuyBuyHold
Sep 17, 2024B. RileyNeutralNeutralHold
Sep 04, 2024Wolfe ResearchPeer PerformOutperformUpgrade
Jul 18, 2024B. RileyNeutralNeutralHold
Jul 17, 2024CitigroupBuyBuyHold
Jul 17, 2024UBSSellSellHold
Jul 17, 2024B. Riley SecuritiesNeutralNeutralHold
Jun 20, 2024Morgan StanleyEqual-WeightOverweightUpgrade
May 21, 2024CitigroupBuyBuyHold
Apr 18, 2024UBSSellSellHold
Apr 18, 2024BMO CapitalPerformPerformHold
Apr 18, 2024B. RileyNeutralNeutralHold
Apr 18, 2024JefferiesBuyBuyHold
Apr 18, 2024BMO CapitalMarket PerformMarket PerformHold
Jan 18, 2024BMO CapitalMarket PerformMarket PerformHold
Oct 19, 2023BMO CapitalPerformPerformHold
Oct 19, 2023BMO CapitalMarket PerformMarket PerformHold
Jul 21, 2023CFRAHoldUpgrade
May 11, 2023Credit SuisseOutperformUpgrade
Mar 30, 2023Morgan StanleyEqual-WeightEqual-WeightHold
Feb 01, 2023UBSNeutralNeutralHold
Oct 06, 2022UBSNeutralInitialise
Sep 22, 2022MoffettNathansonHoldInitialise
Sep 22, 2022CitigroupBuyInitialise
Sep 22, 2022Wolfe ResearchPeer PerformDowngrade
Sep 16, 2022Morgan StanleyOverweightEqual-WeightUpgrade
Sep 16, 2022ScotiabankPerformDowngrade
Sep 16, 2022JefferiesBuyUnderperformDowngrade
Sep 16, 2022Wells FargoUnderweightDowngrade
Sep 16, 2022Loop Capital MarketsHoldDowngrade
Sep 16, 2022SusquehannaNeutralDowngrade
Sep 16, 2022Cowen & Co.OutperformUpgrade
Sep 16, 2022Morgan StanleyPositiveOverweightUpgrade
Aug 03, 2022BMO CapitalMarket PerformMarket PerformHold
Jul 06, 2022B. RileyNeutralNeutralHold
Jun 30, 2022Morgan StanleyPositivePositiveHold
Jun 28, 2022B. Riley SecuritiesNeutralNeutralHold
Apr 17, 2022B. RileyNeutralNeutralHold
Mar 15, 2022Deutsche BankHoldHoldHold
Feb 14, 2022Morgan StanleyOverweightOverweightHold
Jan 17, 2022JefferiesBuyBuyHold
Jul 21, 2021Goldman SachsConviction BuyConviction BuyHold
Apr 19, 2021BMO CapitalMarket PerformMarket PerformHold
Mar 09, 2021Goldman SachsBuyUpgrade

Alcoa's last stock rating was published by Morgan Stanley on Dec 11, 2024. The company gave AA a "Overweight" rating, the same as its previous rate.

Alcoa Financial Forecast


Alcoa Revenue Forecast

Dec 26Sep 26Jun 26Mar 26Dec 25Sep 25Jun 25Mar 25Dec 24Sep 24Jun 24Mar 24Dec 23Sep 23Jun 23Mar 23Dec 22Sep 22Jun 22Mar 22Dec 21Sep 21Jun 21Mar 21Dec 20Sep 20Jun 20Mar 20Dec 19Sep 19
Revenue------------$2.60B-$2.68B$2.67B$2.66B$2.85B$3.64B$3.29B$3.34B$3.11B$2.83B$2.87B$2.39B$2.37B$2.15B$2.38B$2.44B$2.57B
Avg Forecast$2.89B$2.89B$2.88B$2.89B$2.86B$3.07B$3.18B$3.18B$3.25B$2.97B$2.84B$2.55B$2.59B$2.59B$2.68B$2.76B$2.65B$2.96B$3.45B$3.46B$3.29B$2.93B$2.65B$2.63B$2.38B$2.26B$2.11B$2.35B$2.47B$2.57B
High Forecast$3.21B$3.21B$3.20B$3.21B$3.18B$3.41B$3.53B$3.30B$3.31B$2.97B$2.84B$2.55B$2.64B$2.87B$2.97B$3.06B$2.94B$3.07B$3.59B$3.60B$3.42B$3.05B$2.75B$2.73B$2.47B$2.35B$2.19B$2.44B$2.57B$2.67B
Low Forecast$2.67B$2.67B$2.66B$2.67B$2.64B$2.84B$2.94B$3.06B$3.21B$2.96B$2.84B$2.55B$2.54B$2.39B$2.47B$2.55B$2.44B$2.85B$3.33B$3.33B$3.17B$2.82B$2.55B$2.53B$2.29B$2.18B$2.03B$2.26B$2.38B$2.47B
# Analysts111111134222422211112222646453
Surprise %------------1.00%-1.00%0.97%1.01%0.96%1.06%0.95%1.01%1.06%1.07%1.09%1.01%1.05%1.02%1.01%0.98%1.00%

Alcoa's average Quarter revenue forecast for Mar 24 based on 2 analysts is $2.55B, with a low forecast of $2.55B, and a high forecast of $2.55B. AA's average Quarter revenue forecast represents a -1.92% decrease compared to the company's last Quarter revenue of $2.60B (Dec 23).

Alcoa EBITDA Forecast

Dec 26Sep 26Jun 26Mar 26Dec 25Sep 25Jun 25Mar 25Dec 24Sep 24Jun 24Mar 24Dec 23Sep 23Jun 23Mar 23Dec 22Sep 22Jun 22Mar 22Dec 21Sep 21Jun 21Mar 21Dec 20Sep 20Jun 20Mar 20Dec 19Sep 19
# Analysts111111134222422211112222646453
EBITDA------------$92.00M-$105.00M$148.00M$-52.00M$97.00M$1.02B$1.07B$99.00M$678.00M$648.00M$492.00M$229.00M$195.00M$32.00M$360.00M$-35.00M$88.00M
Avg Forecast$312.68M$312.51M$312.33M$313.20M$309.99M$332.84M$344.40M$344.28M$352.25M$321.30M$307.97M$999.06M$280.44M$279.95M$289.99M$908.23M$450.07M$414.33M$484.17M$825.67M$461.82M$410.96M$371.51M$280.60M$333.06M$316.72M$295.20M$375.00M$346.99M$360.02M
High Forecast$347.32M$347.12M$346.92M$347.89M$344.32M$369.71M$382.54M$357.03M$358.75M$322.01M$307.97M$1.20B$285.81M$310.95M$322.11M$1.09B$540.09M$430.49M$503.05M$990.80M$479.83M$426.99M$386.00M$336.72M$346.05M$329.08M$306.72M$450.00M$360.52M$374.06M
Low Forecast$288.82M$288.66M$288.50M$289.30M$286.33M$307.44M$318.12M$331.53M$347.92M$320.58M$307.97M$799.24M$275.06M$258.58M$267.86M$726.59M$360.06M$399.04M$466.29M$660.53M$444.77M$395.79M$357.80M$224.48M$320.77M$305.03M$284.31M$300.00M$334.18M$346.73M
Surprise %------------0.33%-0.36%0.16%-0.12%0.23%2.11%1.30%0.21%1.65%1.74%1.75%0.69%0.62%0.11%0.96%-0.10%0.24%

2 analysts predict AA's average Quarter EBITDA for Mar 24 to be $999.06M, with a high of $1.20B and a low of $799.24M. This is 985.93% upper than Alcoa's previous annual EBITDA (Dec 23) of $92.00M.

Alcoa Net Income Forecast

Dec 26Sep 26Jun 26Mar 26Dec 25Sep 25Jun 25Mar 25Dec 24Sep 24Jun 24Mar 24Dec 23Sep 23Jun 23Mar 23Dec 22Sep 22Jun 22Mar 22Dec 21Sep 21Jun 21Mar 21Dec 20Sep 20Jun 20Mar 20Dec 19Sep 19
# Analysts111111134222422211112222646453
Net Income------------$-150.00M-$-121.00M$-232.00M$-399.00M$-769.00M$549.00M$469.00M$-369.00M$337.00M$309.00M$175.00M$-4.00M$-49.00M$-197.00M$80.00M$-303.00M$-221.00M
Avg Forecast$230.45M$235.59M$244.79M$261.93M$162.77M$204.68M$251.40M$307.15M$209.02M$58.33M$18.02M$542.31M$-198.12M$-246.91M$-104.24M$493.01M$-295.03M$15.54M$455.88M$448.19M$380.13M$347.42M$253.17M$99.81M$21.00M$-268.19M$-75.72M$83.33M$-40.63M$-82.48M
High Forecast$263.63M$269.52M$280.03M$299.65M$186.20M$234.16M$287.60M$410.86M$293.14M$66.73M$18.02M$650.77M$-148.09M$-222.41M$-93.90M$591.61M$-236.03M$16.33M$478.99M$537.83M$383.88M$365.03M$266.01M$119.77M$22.06M$-255.32M$-72.08M$100.00M$-38.68M$-78.52M
Low Forecast$207.58M$212.22M$220.50M$235.95M$146.62M$184.38M$226.46M$201.44M$127.45M$52.54M$18.02M$433.85M$-226.14M$-282.46M$-119.25M$394.41M$-354.04M$14.80M$434.00M$358.55M$376.38M$330.75M$241.02M$79.84M$19.99M$-281.78M$-79.56M$66.67M$-42.70M$-86.66M
Surprise %------------0.76%-1.16%-0.47%1.35%-49.48%1.20%1.05%-0.97%0.97%1.22%1.75%-0.19%0.18%2.60%0.96%7.46%2.68%

Alcoa's average Quarter net income forecast for Sep 22 is $15.54M, with a range of $14.80M to $16.33M. AA's average Quarter net income forecast represents a -97.17% decrease compared to the company's last Quarter net income of $549.00M (Jun 22).

Alcoa SG&A Forecast

Dec 26Sep 26Jun 26Mar 26Dec 25Sep 25Jun 25Mar 25Dec 24Sep 24Jun 24Mar 24Dec 23Sep 23Jun 23Mar 23Dec 22Sep 22Jun 22Mar 22Dec 21Sep 21Jun 21Mar 21Dec 20Sep 20Jun 20Mar 20Dec 19Sep 19
# Analysts111111134222422211112222646453
SG&A------------$64.00M-$52.00M$54.00M$64.00M$44.00M$52.00M$44.00M$68.00M$53.00M$54.00M$52.00M$55.00M$47.00M$44.00M$60.00M$62.00M$66.00M
Avg Forecast$60.24M$60.21M$60.17M$60.34M$59.72M$64.12M$66.35M$66.33M$67.86M$61.90M$59.33M$50.88M$54.03M$53.93M$55.87M$46.25M$51.18M$61.65M$72.04M$42.05M$68.72M$61.15M$55.28M$29.66M$49.56M$47.13M$43.93M$62.50M$51.63M$53.57M
High Forecast$66.91M$66.87M$66.84M$67.02M$66.34M$71.23M$73.70M$68.78M$69.12M$62.04M$59.33M$61.05M$55.06M$59.91M$62.06M$55.50M$61.41M$64.06M$74.85M$50.46M$71.40M$63.54M$57.44M$35.59M$51.49M$48.97M$45.64M$75.00M$53.65M$55.66M
Low Forecast$55.64M$55.61M$55.58M$55.74M$55.16M$59.23M$61.29M$63.87M$67.03M$61.76M$59.33M$40.70M$52.99M$49.82M$51.61M$37.00M$40.94M$59.38M$69.38M$33.64M$66.18M$58.89M$53.24M$23.73M$47.73M$45.39M$42.31M$50.00M$49.73M$51.59M
Surprise %------------1.18%-0.93%1.17%1.25%0.71%0.72%1.05%0.99%0.87%0.98%1.75%1.11%1.00%1.00%0.96%1.20%1.23%

Alcoa's average Quarter SG&A projection for Mar 24 is $50.88M, based on 2 Wall Street analysts, with a range of $40.70M to $61.05M. The forecast indicates a -20.50% fall compared to AA last annual SG&A of $64.00M (Dec 23).

Alcoa EPS Forecast

Dec 26Sep 26Jun 26Mar 26Dec 25Sep 25Jun 25Mar 25Dec 24Sep 24Jun 24Mar 24Dec 23Sep 23Jun 23Mar 23Dec 22Sep 22Jun 22Mar 22Dec 21Sep 21Jun 21Mar 21Dec 20Sep 20Jun 20Mar 20Dec 19Sep 19
# Analysts111111134222422211112222646453
EPS------------$-0.84-$-0.68$-1.30$-2.25$-4.30$3.01$2.54$-1.99$1.80$1.66$0.94$-0.02$-0.26$-1.06$0.43$-1.63$-1.19
Avg Forecast$0.98$1.01$1.05$1.12$0.70$0.87$1.07$1.31$0.89$0.25$0.08$-0.64$-0.85$-1.06$-0.45$0.01$-0.81$0.08$2.31$2.88$1.93$1.76$1.29$0.45$0.11$-1.36$-0.38$-0.25$-0.21$-0.42
High Forecast$1.13$1.15$1.20$1.28$0.80$1.00$1.23$1.76$1.25$0.29$0.08$-0.58$-0.63$-0.95$-0.40$0.01$-0.73$0.08$2.43$3.03$1.95$1.85$1.35$0.47$0.11$-1.30$-0.37$-0.23$-0.20$-0.40
Low Forecast$0.89$0.91$0.94$1.01$0.63$0.79$0.97$0.86$0.54$0.22$0.08$-0.73$-0.97$-1.21$-0.51$0.01$-0.93$0.08$2.20$2.74$1.91$1.68$1.22$0.42$0.10$-1.43$-0.40$-0.26$-0.22$-0.44
Surprise %------------0.99%-1.53%-198.84%2.76%-54.50%1.30%0.88%-1.03%1.02%1.29%2.11%-0.19%0.19%2.76%-1.75%7.91%2.84%

According to 1 Wall Street analysts, Alcoa's projected average Quarter EPS for Sep 22 is $0.08, with a low estimate of $0.08 and a high estimate of $0.08. This represents a -97.38% decrease compared to AA previous annual EPS of $3.01 (Jun 22).

Alcoa Peer Comparison by Price Target


TickerCompanyLast Closing PriceAvg Price TargetUpside/DownsideAvg Rating
CSTMConstellium SE$10.91$15.0037.49%Buy
AAAlcoa$38.44$46.5721.15%Buy
KALUKaiser Aluminum$75.18$81.338.18%Buy
CENXCentury Aluminum Company$19.61$21.007.09%Hold

AA Forecast FAQ


Is Alcoa a good buy?

Yes, according to 17 Wall Street analysts, Alcoa (AA) is considered a 'Buy'. The rating consensus is based on 0 'Strong Buy' and 8 'Buy' recommendations, accounting for 47.06% of AA's total ratings.

What is AA's price target?

Alcoa (AA) average price target is $46.57 with a range of $38 to $52, implying a 20.71% from its last price of $38.58. The data is based on 17 Wall Street analysts who provided a twelve-month price target estimate in the last three months.

Will Alcoa stock go up soon?

According to Wall Street analysts' prediction for AA stock, the company can go up by 20.71% (from the last price of $38.58 to the average price target of $46.57), up by 34.78% based on the highest stock price target, and down by -1.50% based on the lowest stock price target.

Can Alcoa stock reach $60?

AA's average twelve months analyst stock price target of $46.57 does not support the claim that Alcoa can reach $60 in the near future.

What are Alcoa's analysts' financial forecasts?

Alcoa's analysts financial forecasts for the fiscal year (Dec 2025) are as follows: average revenue is $12.3B (high $13.42B, low $11.48B), average EBITDA is $1.33B (high $1.45B, low $1.24B), average net income is $926.01M (high $1.12B, low $758.9M), average SG&A $256.52M (high $280.05M, low $239.55M), and average EPS is $3.96 (high $4.78, low $3.24). AA's analysts financial forecasts for the fiscal year (Dec 2026) are as follows: average revenue is $11.55B (high $12.83B, low $10.67B), average EBITDA is $1.25B (high $1.39B, low $1.16B), average net income is $972.76M (high $1.11B, low $876.25M), average SG&A $240.96M (high $267.65M, low $222.57M), and average EPS is $4.16 (high $4.76, low $3.74).

Did the AA's actual financial results beat the analysts' financial forecasts?

Based on Alcoa's last annual report (Dec 2023), the company's revenue was $10.55B, which missed the average analysts forecast of $10.61B by -0.57%. Apple's EBITDA was $277M, missing the average prediction of $1.76B by -84.25%. The company's net income was $-651M, beating the average estimation of $-56.253M by 1057.27%. Apple's SG&A was $226M, beating the average forecast of $210.08M by 7.58%. Lastly, the company's EPS was $-3.65, beating the average prediction of $-2.341 by 55.93%. In terms of the last quarterly report (Dec 2023), Alcoa's revenue was $2.6B, beating the average analysts' forecast of $2.59B by 0.21%. The company's EBITDA was $92M, missing the average prediction of $280.44M by -67.19%. Alcoa's net income was $-150M, missing the average estimation of $-198M by -24.29%. The company's SG&A was $64M, beating the average forecast of $54.03M by 18.46%. Lastly, the company's EPS was $-0.84, missing the average prediction of $-0.847 by -0.79%