Alcoa (AA) Stock Forecast, Price Target & Predictions
AA Stock Forecast
Alcoa stock forecast is as follows: an average price target of $57.27 (represents a 41.09% upside from AA’s last price of $40.59) and a rating consensus of 'Buy', based on 17 wall street analysts offering a 1-year stock forecast.
AA Price Target
The average price target for Alcoa (AA) is $57.27 based on 1-year price targets from 17 Wall Street analysts in the past 3 months, with a price target range of $95.00 to $37.00. This represents a potential 41.09% upside from AA's last price of $40.59.
AA Analyst Ratings
According to 17 Wall Street analysts, Alcoa's rating consensus is 'Buy'. The analyst rating breakdown for AA stock is 0 'Strong Buy' (0.00%), 8 'Buy' (47.06%), 8 'Hold' (47.06%), 1 'Sell' (5.88%), and 0 'Strong Sell' (0.00%).
Alcoa Price Target by Analyst
| Date | Analyst | Company | Price Target | Price when Published | Price Target/Price when Published | Price Target/Last Closing Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2024 | Katja Jancic | BMO Capital | $45.00 | $42.07 | 6.96% | 10.86% |
| Oct 17, 2024 | Derek Hernandez | B.Riley Financial | $50.00 | $42.07 | 18.85% | 23.18% |
| Oct 17, 2024 | Christopher LaFemina | Jefferies | $50.00 | $42.07 | 18.85% | 23.18% |
| Oct 09, 2024 | Timna Tanners | Wolfe Research | $41.00 | $37.73 | 8.67% | 1.01% |
| Oct 01, 2024 | Lawson Winder | Bank of America Securities | $52.00 | $39.45 | 31.83% | 28.11% |
| Aug 12, 2024 | Curt Woodworth | UBS | $38.00 | $31.19 | 21.83% | -6.38% |
| Jul 02, 2024 | Derek Hernandez | B.Riley Financial | $39.00 | $39.70 | -1.76% | -3.92% |
| Jun 21, 2024 | Carlos De Alba | Morgan Stanley | $50.00 | $39.64 | 26.14% | 23.18% |
| Apr 22, 2024 | Carlos De Alba | Morgan Stanley | $36.50 | $36.35 | 0.41% | -10.08% |
| Apr 18, 2024 | Katja Jancic | Loop Capital Markets | $37.00 | $35.47 | 4.31% | -8.84% |
The latest Alcoa stock forecast, released on Oct 17, 2024 by Katja Jancic from BMO Capital, set a price target of $45.00, which represents a 6.96% increase from the stock price at the time of the forecast ($42.07), and a 10.86% increase from AA last price ($40.59).
Alcoa Price Target by Period
| 1M | 3M | 12M | |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Anlaysts | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| Avg Price Target | $48.33 | $47.60 | $42.65 |
| Last Closing Price | $40.59 | $40.59 | $40.59 |
| Upside/Downside | 19.07% | 17.27% | 5.08% |
In the current month, the average price target of Alcoa stock is $48.33, according to 3 Wall Street analysts offering twelve months forecast. The average price target represents a 19.07% increase as opposed to Alcoa's last price of $40.59. This month's average price target is up 1.53% compared to last quarter, and up 13.32% compared to last year.
Analyst Ratings Upgrades/Downgrades
| Date | Company | Previous Rating | New Rating | Rating Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2024 | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Hold |
| Oct 17, 2024 | BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Hold |
| Oct 17, 2024 | Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Hold |
| Oct 09, 2024 | Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Hold |
| Oct 01, 2024 | Bank of America Securities | - | Buy | Upgrade |
| Sep 19, 2024 | UBS | Buy | Buy | Hold |
| Sep 17, 2024 | B. Riley | Neutral | Neutral | Hold |
| Sep 04, 2024 | Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Upgrade |
| Jul 18, 2024 | B. Riley | Neutral | Neutral | Hold |
| Jul 17, 2024 | Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Hold |
Alcoa's last stock rating was published by Morgan Stanley on Oct 18, 2024. The company gave AA a "Overweight" rating, the same as its previous rate.
Alcoa Financial Forecast
Alcoa Revenue Forecast
| Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jun 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Mar 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | Jun 20 | Mar 20 | Dec 19 | Sep 19 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $2.60B | - | $2.68B | $2.67B | $2.66B | $2.85B | $3.64B | $3.29B | $3.34B | $3.11B | $2.83B | $2.87B | $2.39B | $2.37B | $2.15B | $2.38B | $2.44B | $2.57B |
| Avg Forecast | $2.83B | $2.83B | $2.83B | $2.82B | $2.80B | $2.85B | $2.89B | $2.91B | $3.22B | $2.97B | $2.84B | $2.55B | $2.59B | $2.59B | $2.68B | $2.76B | $2.65B | $2.96B | $3.45B | $3.46B | $3.29B | $2.93B | $2.65B | $2.63B | $2.38B | $2.26B | $2.11B | $2.35B | $2.47B | $2.57B |
| High Forecast | $2.93B | $2.93B | $2.93B | $2.93B | $2.91B | $2.95B | $3.00B | $3.02B | $3.28B | $2.97B | $2.84B | $2.55B | $2.64B | $2.68B | $2.78B | $2.86B | $2.74B | $3.07B | $3.59B | $3.60B | $3.42B | $3.05B | $2.75B | $2.73B | $2.47B | $2.35B | $2.19B | $2.44B | $2.57B | $2.67B |
| Low Forecast | $2.75B | $2.75B | $2.75B | $2.75B | $2.73B | $2.77B | $2.82B | $2.80B | $3.19B | $2.96B | $2.84B | $2.55B | $2.54B | $2.52B | $2.61B | $2.69B | $2.58B | $2.85B | $3.33B | $3.33B | $3.17B | $2.82B | $2.55B | $2.53B | $2.29B | $2.18B | $2.03B | $2.26B | $2.38B | $2.47B |
| # Analysts | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.00% | - | 1.00% | 0.97% | 1.01% | 0.96% | 1.06% | 0.95% | 1.01% | 1.06% | 1.07% | 1.09% | 1.01% | 1.05% | 1.02% | 1.01% | 0.98% | 1.00% |
Alcoa's average Quarter revenue forecast for Mar 24 based on 2 analysts is $2.55B, with a low forecast of $2.55B, and a high forecast of $2.55B. AA's average Quarter revenue forecast represents a -1.92% decrease compared to the company's last Quarter revenue of $2.60B (Dec 23).
Alcoa EBITDA Forecast
| Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jun 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Mar 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | Jun 20 | Mar 20 | Dec 19 | Sep 19 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| EBITDA | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $92.00M | - | $105.00M | $148.00M | $-52.00M | $97.00M | $1.02B | $1.07B | $99.00M | $678.00M | $648.00M | $492.00M | $229.00M | $195.00M | $32.00M | $360.00M | $-35.00M | $88.00M |
| Avg Forecast | $396.73M | $396.50M | $396.27M | $395.69M | $393.15M | $399.42M | $405.75M | $408.11M | $452.14M | $415.99M | $398.74M | $999.06M | $363.09M | $362.46M | $375.46M | $908.23M | $450.07M | $414.33M | $484.17M | $825.67M | $461.82M | $410.96M | $371.51M | $280.60M | $333.06M | $316.72M | $295.20M | $375.00M | $346.99M | $360.02M |
| High Forecast | $411.40M | $411.16M | $410.92M | $410.33M | $407.68M | $414.19M | $420.76M | $423.22M | $460.49M | $416.92M | $398.74M | $1.20B | $370.04M | $375.86M | $389.35M | $1.09B | $540.09M | $430.49M | $503.05M | $990.80M | $479.83M | $426.99M | $386.00M | $336.72M | $346.05M | $329.08M | $306.72M | $450.00M | $360.52M | $374.06M |
| Low Forecast | $386.23M | $386.00M | $385.78M | $385.22M | $382.74M | $388.85M | $395.01M | $392.99M | $446.57M | $415.06M | $398.74M | $799.24M | $356.13M | $352.86M | $365.52M | $726.59M | $360.06M | $399.04M | $466.29M | $660.53M | $444.77M | $395.79M | $357.80M | $224.48M | $320.77M | $305.03M | $284.31M | $300.00M | $334.18M | $346.73M |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.25% | - | 0.28% | 0.16% | -0.12% | 0.23% | 2.11% | 1.30% | 0.21% | 1.65% | 1.74% | 1.75% | 0.69% | 0.62% | 0.11% | 0.96% | -0.10% | 0.24% |
2 analysts predict AA's average Quarter EBITDA for Mar 24 to be $999.06M, with a high of $1.20B and a low of $799.24M. This is 985.93% upper than Alcoa's previous annual EBITDA (Dec 23) of $92.00M.
Alcoa Net Income Forecast
| Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jun 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Mar 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | Jun 20 | Mar 20 | Dec 19 | Sep 19 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Net Income | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $-150.00M | - | $-121.00M | $-232.00M | $-399.00M | $-769.00M | $549.00M | $469.00M | $-369.00M | $337.00M | $309.00M | $175.00M | $-4.00M | $-49.00M | $-197.00M | $80.00M | $-303.00M | $-221.00M |
| Avg Forecast | $211.79M | $216.78M | $225.80M | $233.32M | $149.42M | $160.81M | $179.71M | $234.97M | $187.60M | $58.33M | $18.02M | $542.31M | $-198.12M | $-246.91M | $-104.24M | $493.01M | $-295.03M | $15.54M | $455.88M | $448.19M | $380.13M | $347.42M | $253.17M | $99.81M | $21.00M | $-268.19M | $-75.72M | $83.33M | $-40.63M | $-82.48M |
| High Forecast | $221.97M | $227.20M | $236.66M | $244.54M | $156.60M | $168.54M | $188.35M | $278.55M | $243.64M | $61.13M | $18.02M | $650.77M | $-148.09M | $-238.41M | $-100.65M | $591.61M | $-236.03M | $16.33M | $478.99M | $537.83M | $383.88M | $365.03M | $266.01M | $119.77M | $22.06M | $-255.32M | $-72.08M | $100.00M | $-38.68M | $-78.52M |
| Low Forecast | $204.50M | $209.32M | $218.03M | $225.29M | $144.28M | $155.28M | $173.53M | $191.39M | $121.82M | $56.32M | $18.02M | $433.85M | $-226.14M | $-258.78M | $-109.25M | $394.41M | $-354.04M | $14.80M | $434.00M | $358.55M | $376.38M | $330.75M | $241.02M | $79.84M | $19.99M | $-281.78M | $-79.56M | $66.67M | $-42.70M | $-86.66M |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.76% | - | 1.16% | -0.47% | 1.35% | -49.48% | 1.20% | 1.05% | -0.97% | 0.97% | 1.22% | 1.75% | -0.19% | 0.18% | 2.60% | 0.96% | 7.46% | 2.68% |
Alcoa's average Quarter net income forecast for Sep 22 is $15.54M, with a range of $14.80M to $16.33M. AA's average Quarter net income forecast represents a -97.17% decrease compared to the company's last Quarter net income of $549.00M (Jun 22).
Alcoa SG&A Forecast
| Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jun 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Mar 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | Jun 20 | Mar 20 | Dec 19 | Sep 19 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| SG&A | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $64.00M | - | $52.00M | $54.00M | $64.00M | $44.00M | $52.00M | $44.00M | $68.00M | $53.00M | $54.00M | $52.00M | $55.00M | $47.00M | $44.00M | $60.00M | $62.00M | $66.00M |
| Avg Forecast | $59.03M | $59.00M | $58.97M | $58.88M | $58.50M | $59.43M | $60.38M | $60.73M | $67.28M | $61.90M | $59.33M | $50.88M | $54.03M | $53.93M | $55.87M | $46.25M | $51.18M | $61.65M | $72.04M | $42.05M | $68.72M | $61.15M | $55.28M | $29.66M | $49.56M | $47.13M | $43.93M | $62.50M | $51.63M | $53.57M |
| High Forecast | $61.22M | $61.18M | $61.15M | $61.06M | $60.66M | $61.63M | $62.61M | $62.98M | $68.52M | $62.04M | $59.33M | $61.05M | $55.06M | $55.93M | $57.94M | $55.50M | $61.41M | $64.06M | $74.85M | $50.46M | $71.40M | $63.54M | $57.44M | $35.59M | $51.49M | $48.97M | $45.64M | $75.00M | $53.65M | $55.66M |
| Low Forecast | $57.47M | $57.44M | $57.40M | $57.32M | $56.95M | $57.86M | $58.78M | $58.48M | $66.45M | $61.76M | $59.33M | $40.70M | $52.99M | $52.51M | $54.39M | $37.00M | $40.94M | $59.38M | $69.38M | $33.64M | $66.18M | $58.89M | $53.24M | $23.73M | $47.73M | $45.39M | $42.31M | $50.00M | $49.73M | $51.59M |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.18% | - | 0.93% | 1.17% | 1.25% | 0.71% | 0.72% | 1.05% | 0.99% | 0.87% | 0.98% | 1.75% | 1.11% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 0.96% | 1.20% | 1.23% |
Alcoa's average Quarter SG&A projection for Mar 24 is $50.88M, based on 2 Wall Street analysts, with a range of $40.70M to $61.05M. The forecast indicates a -20.50% fall compared to AA last annual SG&A of $64.00M (Dec 23).
Alcoa EPS Forecast
| Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jun 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Mar 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | Jun 20 | Mar 20 | Dec 19 | Sep 19 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| EPS | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $-0.84 | - | $-0.68 | $-1.30 | $-2.25 | $-4.30 | $3.01 | $2.54 | $-1.99 | $1.80 | $1.66 | $0.94 | $-0.02 | $-0.26 | $-1.06 | $0.43 | $-1.63 | $-1.19 |
| Avg Forecast | $0.91 | $0.93 | $0.96 | $1.00 | $0.64 | $0.69 | $0.77 | $1.00 | $0.80 | $0.25 | $0.08 | $-0.64 | $-0.85 | $-1.06 | $-0.45 | $0.01 | $-0.81 | $0.08 | $2.31 | $2.88 | $1.93 | $1.76 | $1.29 | $0.45 | $0.11 | $-1.36 | $-0.38 | $-0.25 | $-0.21 | $-0.42 |
| High Forecast | $0.95 | $0.97 | $1.01 | $1.05 | $0.67 | $0.72 | $0.80 | $1.19 | $1.04 | $0.26 | $0.08 | $-0.62 | $-0.63 | $-1.02 | $-0.43 | $0.01 | $-0.79 | $0.08 | $2.43 | $3.03 | $1.95 | $1.85 | $1.35 | $0.47 | $0.11 | $-1.30 | $-0.37 | $-0.23 | $-0.20 | $-0.40 |
| Low Forecast | $0.87 | $0.89 | $0.93 | $0.96 | $0.62 | $0.66 | $0.74 | $0.82 | $0.52 | $0.24 | $0.08 | $-0.67 | $-0.97 | $-1.11 | $-0.47 | $0.01 | $-0.85 | $0.08 | $2.20 | $2.74 | $1.91 | $1.68 | $1.22 | $0.42 | $0.10 | $-1.43 | $-0.40 | $-0.26 | $-0.22 | $-0.44 |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.99% | - | 1.53% | -198.84% | 2.76% | -54.50% | 1.30% | 0.88% | -1.03% | 1.02% | 1.29% | 2.11% | -0.19% | 0.19% | 2.76% | -1.75% | 7.91% | 2.84% |
According to 1 Wall Street analysts, Alcoa's projected average Quarter EPS for Sep 22 is $0.08, with a low estimate of $0.08 and a high estimate of $0.08. This represents a -97.38% decrease compared to AA previous annual EPS of $3.01 (Jun 22).