Alcoa (AA) Stock Forecast, Price Target & Predictions
AA Stock Forecast
Alcoa stock forecast is as follows: an average price target of $57.33 (represents a 76.29% upside from AA’s last price of $32.52) and a rating consensus of 'Hold', based on 15 wall street analysts offering a 1-year stock forecast.
AA Price Target
The average price target for Alcoa (AA) is $57.33 based on 1-year price targets from 15 Wall Street analysts in the past 3 months, with a price target range of $95.00 to $37.00. This represents a potential 76.29% upside from AA's last price of $32.52.
AA Analyst Ratings
According to 15 Wall Street analysts, Alcoa's rating consensus is 'Hold'. The analyst rating breakdown for AA stock is 0 'Strong Buy' (0.00%), 6 'Buy' (40.00%), 7 'Hold' (46.67%), 2 'Sell' (13.33%), and 0 'Strong Sell' (0.00%).
Alcoa Price Target by Analyst
| Date | Analyst | Company | Price Target | Price when Published | Price Target/Price when Published | Price Target/Last Closing Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2024 | Curt Woodworth | UBS | $38.00 | $31.19 | 21.83% | 16.85% |
| Jul 02, 2024 | Derek Hernandez | B.Riley Financial | $39.00 | $39.70 | -1.76% | 19.93% |
| Jun 21, 2024 | Carlos De Alba | Morgan Stanley | $50.00 | $39.64 | 26.14% | 53.75% |
| Apr 22, 2024 | Carlos De Alba | Morgan Stanley | $36.50 | $36.35 | 0.41% | 12.24% |
| Apr 18, 2024 | Katja Jancic | Loop Capital Markets | $37.00 | $35.47 | 4.31% | 13.78% |
| Apr 18, 2024 | Christopher LaFemina | Jefferies | $48.00 | $35.55 | 35.02% | 47.60% |
| Apr 18, 2024 | Derek Hernandez | B.Riley Financial | $31.00 | $35.55 | -12.80% | -4.67% |
| Apr 18, 2024 | Katja Jancic | BMO Capital | $37.00 | $35.55 | 4.08% | 13.78% |
| Oct 19, 2023 | Katja Jancic | Loop Capital Markets | $28.00 | $24.53 | 14.15% | -13.90% |
| Feb 01, 2023 | - | UBS | $50.00 | $52.23 | -4.26% | 53.75% |
The latest Alcoa stock forecast, released on Aug 12, 2024 by Curt Woodworth from UBS, set a price target of $38.00, which represents a 21.83% increase from the stock price at the time of the forecast ($31.19), and a 16.85% increase from AA last price ($32.52).
Alcoa Price Target by Period
| 1M | 3M | 12M | |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Anlaysts | - | 3 | 9 |
| Avg Price Target | - | $42.33 | $38.28 |
| Last Closing Price | $32.52 | $32.52 | $32.52 |
| Upside/Downside | -100.00% | 30.17% | 17.71% |
In the current month, the average price target of Alcoa stock is -, according to 0 Wall Street analyst offering twelve months forecast. The average price target represents a -100.00% decrease as opposed to Alcoa's last price of $32.52. This month's average price target is down -100.00% compared to last quarter, and down -100.00% compared to last year.
Analyst Ratings Upgrades/Downgrades
| Date | Company | Previous Rating | New Rating | Rating Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04, 2024 | Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Upgrade |
| Jul 18, 2024 | B. Riley | Neutral | Neutral | Hold |
| Jul 17, 2024 | B. Riley Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Hold |
| Jul 17, 2024 | Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Hold |
| Jul 17, 2024 | UBS | Sell | Sell | Hold |
| Jun 20, 2024 | Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight | Overweight | Upgrade |
| May 21, 2024 | Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Hold |
| Apr 18, 2024 | UBS | Sell | Sell | Hold |
| Apr 18, 2024 | BMO Capital | Perform | Perform | Hold |
| Apr 18, 2024 | B. Riley | Neutral | Neutral | Hold |
Alcoa's last stock rating was published by Wolfe Research on Sep 04, 2024. The company Upgrade its AA rating from "Peer Perform" to "Outperform".
Alcoa Financial Forecast
Alcoa Revenue Forecast
| Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jul 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Mar 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | Jun 20 | Mar 20 | Dec 19 | Sep 19 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $2.60B | - | $2.68B | $2.67B | $2.66B | $2.85B | - | $3.29B | $3.34B | $3.11B | $2.83B | $2.87B | $2.39B | $2.37B | $2.15B | $2.38B | $2.44B | $2.57B |
| Avg Forecast | $2.83B | $2.83B | $2.82B | $2.81B | $2.75B | $2.77B | $2.86B | $2.86B | $2.91B | $2.95B | $2.84B | $2.55B | $2.59B | $2.59B | $2.68B | $2.76B | $2.65B | $2.96B | $3.45B | $3.46B | $3.29B | $2.93B | $2.65B | $2.63B | $2.38B | $2.26B | $2.11B | $2.35B | $2.47B | $2.57B |
| High Forecast | $2.96B | $2.95B | $2.95B | $2.94B | $2.88B | $2.89B | $2.99B | $2.98B | $3.04B | $3.11B | $2.97B | $2.66B | $2.64B | $2.70B | $2.80B | $2.88B | $2.77B | $3.09B | $3.45B | $3.65B | $3.48B | $3.09B | $2.80B | $2.78B | $2.51B | $2.38B | $2.22B | $2.48B | $2.61B | $2.71B |
| Low Forecast | $2.74B | $2.74B | $2.74B | $2.73B | $2.67B | $2.69B | $2.77B | $2.77B | $2.83B | $2.83B | $2.76B | $2.47B | $2.54B | $2.51B | $2.60B | $2.68B | $2.57B | $2.87B | $3.45B | $3.18B | $3.03B | $2.69B | $2.44B | $2.42B | $2.18B | $2.08B | $1.93B | $2.16B | $2.27B | $2.36B |
| # Analysts | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.00% | - | 1.00% | 0.97% | 1.01% | 0.96% | - | 0.95% | 1.01% | 1.06% | 1.07% | 1.09% | 1.01% | 1.05% | 1.02% | 1.01% | 0.98% | 1.00% |
Alcoa's average Quarter revenue forecast for Mar 24 based on 2 analysts is $2.55B, with a low forecast of $2.47B, and a high forecast of $2.66B. AA's average Quarter revenue forecast represents a -1.92% decrease compared to the company's last Quarter revenue of $2.60B (Dec 23).
Alcoa EBITDA Forecast
| Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jul 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Mar 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | Jun 20 | Mar 20 | Dec 19 | Sep 19 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| EBITDA | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $92.00M | - | $105.00M | $148.00M | $-52.00M | $97.00M | - | $1.07B | $99.00M | $678.00M | $648.00M | $492.00M | $229.00M | $195.00M | $32.00M | $360.00M | $-35.00M | $88.00M |
| Avg Forecast | $396.39M | $396.15M | $395.92M | $394.30M | $386.06M | $388.24M | $400.45M | $400.37M | $408.40M | $414.13M | $398.74M | $999.06M | $363.09M | $362.46M | $375.46M | $908.23M | $371.04M | $665.17M | $484.17M | $825.67M | $409.16M | $604.70M | $580.80M | $280.60M | $91.60M | $224.67M | $56.08M | $375.00M | $-22.75M | $58.67M |
| High Forecast | $414.34M | $414.09M | $413.85M | $412.16M | $403.54M | $405.83M | $418.59M | $418.50M | $426.89M | $436.52M | $416.80M | $1.20B | $370.04M | $378.87M | $392.47M | $1.09B | $387.84M | $798.21M | $484.17M | $990.80M | $490.99M | $725.64M | $696.96M | $336.72M | $109.92M | $269.61M | $67.30M | $450.00M | $-18.20M | $70.40M |
| Low Forecast | $384.85M | $384.62M | $384.39M | $382.83M | $374.82M | $376.94M | $388.79M | $388.71M | $396.51M | $397.34M | $387.13M | $799.24M | $356.13M | $351.90M | $364.53M | $726.59M | $360.24M | $532.14M | $484.17M | $660.53M | $327.33M | $483.76M | $464.64M | $224.48M | $73.28M | $179.74M | $44.87M | $300.00M | $-27.30M | $46.93M |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.25% | - | 0.28% | 0.16% | -0.14% | 0.15% | - | 1.30% | 0.24% | 1.12% | 1.12% | 1.75% | 2.50% | 0.87% | 0.57% | 0.96% | 1.54% | 1.50% |
2 analysts predict AA's average Quarter EBITDA for Mar 24 to be $999.06M, with a high of $1.20B and a low of $799.24M. This is 985.93% upper than Alcoa's previous annual EBITDA (Dec 23) of $92.00M.
Alcoa Net Income Forecast
| Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jul 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Mar 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | Jun 20 | Mar 20 | Dec 19 | Sep 19 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Net Income | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $-150.00M | - | $-121.00M | $-232.00M | $-399.00M | $-769.00M | - | $469.00M | $-369.00M | $337.00M | $309.00M | $175.00M | $-4.00M | $-49.00M | $-197.00M | $80.00M | $-303.00M | $-221.00M |
| Avg Forecast | $164.20M | $168.10M | $175.15M | $176.91M | $127.21M | $128.49M | $124.10M | $126.29M | $112.04M | $86.83M | $13.94M | $542.31M | $-153.25M | $-190.98M | $-80.63M | $493.01M | $-147.44M | $330.62M | $414.89M | $448.19M | $-268.21M | $300.57M | $276.96M | $99.81M | $-1.60M | $-56.46M | $-345.27M | $83.33M | $-196.95M | $-147.33M |
| High Forecast | $173.87M | $177.99M | $185.46M | $187.33M | $134.70M | $136.06M | $131.40M | $133.72M | $118.63M | $126.11M | $14.76M | $650.77M | $-114.55M | $-183.76M | $-77.58M | $591.61M | $-141.86M | $396.75M | $414.89M | $537.83M | $-214.57M | $360.68M | $332.35M | $119.77M | $-1.28M | $-45.17M | $-276.21M | $100.00M | $-157.56M | $-117.87M |
| Low Forecast | $157.99M | $161.73M | $168.52M | $170.21M | $122.39M | $123.63M | $119.40M | $121.51M | $107.80M | $41.35M | $13.41M | $433.85M | $-174.92M | $-202.23M | $-85.38M | $394.41M | $-156.12M | $264.50M | $414.89M | $358.55M | $-321.85M | $240.45M | $221.56M | $79.84M | $-1.92M | $-67.75M | $-414.32M | $66.67M | $-236.34M | $-176.80M |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.98% | - | 1.50% | -0.47% | 2.71% | -2.33% | - | 1.05% | 1.38% | 1.12% | 1.12% | 1.75% | 2.50% | 0.87% | 0.57% | 0.96% | 1.54% | 1.50% |
Alcoa's average Quarter net income forecast for Jul 22 is $414.89M, with a range of $414.89M to $414.89M. AA's average Quarter net income forecast represents a -11.54% decrease compared to the company's last Quarter net income of $469.00M (Mar 22).
Alcoa SG&A Forecast
| Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jul 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Mar 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | Jun 20 | Mar 20 | Dec 19 | Sep 19 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| SG&A | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $64.00M | - | $52.00M | $54.00M | $64.00M | $44.00M | - | $44.00M | $68.00M | $53.00M | $54.00M | $52.00M | $55.00M | $47.00M | $44.00M | $60.00M | $62.00M | $66.00M |
| Avg Forecast | $58.98M | $58.95M | $58.91M | $58.67M | $57.45M | $57.77M | $59.59M | $59.58M | $60.77M | $61.62M | $59.33M | $50.88M | $54.03M | $53.93M | $55.87M | $46.25M | $55.21M | $52.00M | $72.04M | $42.05M | $46.53M | $47.27M | $48.40M | $29.66M | $22.00M | $54.15M | $77.12M | $62.50M | $40.30M | $44.00M |
| High Forecast | $61.65M | $61.62M | $61.58M | $61.33M | $60.05M | $60.39M | $62.29M | $62.27M | $63.52M | $64.95M | $62.02M | $61.05M | $55.06M | $56.38M | $58.40M | $55.50M | $57.71M | $62.40M | $72.04M | $50.46M | $55.83M | $56.72M | $58.08M | $35.59M | $26.40M | $64.98M | $92.54M | $75.00M | $48.36M | $52.80M |
| Low Forecast | $57.27M | $57.23M | $57.20M | $56.96M | $55.77M | $56.09M | $57.85M | $57.84M | $59.00M | $59.13M | $57.61M | $40.70M | $52.99M | $52.36M | $54.24M | $37.00M | $53.60M | $41.60M | $72.04M | $33.64M | $37.22M | $37.82M | $38.72M | $23.73M | $17.60M | $43.32M | $61.69M | $50.00M | $32.24M | $35.20M |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1.18% | - | 0.93% | 1.17% | 1.16% | 0.85% | - | 1.05% | 1.46% | 1.12% | 1.12% | 1.75% | 2.50% | 0.87% | 0.57% | 0.96% | 1.54% | 1.50% |
Alcoa's average Quarter SG&A projection for Mar 24 is $50.88M, based on 2 Wall Street analysts, with a range of $40.70M to $61.05M. The forecast indicates a -20.50% fall compared to AA last annual SG&A of $64.00M (Dec 23).
Alcoa EPS Forecast
| Dec 26 | Sep 26 | Jun 26 | Mar 26 | Dec 25 | Sep 25 | Jun 25 | Mar 25 | Dec 24 | Sep 24 | Jun 24 | Mar 24 | Dec 23 | Sep 23 | Jun 23 | Mar 23 | Dec 22 | Sep 22 | Jul 22 | Mar 22 | Dec 21 | Sep 21 | Jun 21 | Mar 21 | Dec 20 | Sep 20 | Jun 20 | Mar 20 | Dec 19 | Sep 19 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # Analysts | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| EPS | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | $-0.84 | - | $-0.68 | $-1.30 | $-2.25 | $-4.30 | - | $2.54 | $-1.99 | $1.80 | $1.66 | $0.94 | $-0.02 | $-0.26 | $-1.06 | $0.43 | $-1.63 | $-1.19 |
| Avg Forecast | $0.91 | $0.93 | $0.97 | $0.98 | $0.70 | $0.71 | $0.69 | $0.70 | $0.62 | $0.48 | $0.08 | $-0.64 | $-0.85 | $-1.06 | $-0.45 | $0.01 | $-0.81 | $0.08 | $2.31 | $2.88 | $1.93 | $1.76 | $1.29 | $0.45 | $0.11 | $-1.36 | $-0.38 | $-0.25 | $-0.21 | $-0.42 |
| High Forecast | $0.96 | $0.98 | $1.02 | $1.03 | $0.74 | $0.75 | $0.73 | $0.74 | $0.66 | $0.70 | $0.08 | $-0.62 | $-0.63 | $-1.02 | $-0.43 | $0.01 | $-0.78 | $0.08 | $2.31 | $3.09 | $2.07 | $1.89 | $1.38 | $0.48 | $0.11 | $-1.22 | $-0.34 | $-0.22 | $-0.18 | $-0.37 |
| Low Forecast | $0.87 | $0.89 | $0.93 | $0.94 | $0.68 | $0.68 | $0.66 | $0.67 | $0.60 | $0.23 | $0.07 | $-0.68 | $-0.97 | $-1.12 | $-0.47 | $0.01 | $-0.86 | $0.08 | $2.31 | $2.58 | $1.73 | $1.58 | $1.15 | $0.40 | $0.10 | $-1.46 | $-0.41 | $-0.26 | $-0.22 | $-0.45 |
| Surprise % | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.99% | - | 1.53% | -198.84% | 2.76% | -54.50% | - | 0.88% | -1.03% | 1.02% | 1.29% | 2.11% | -0.19% | 0.19% | 2.76% | -1.75% | 7.91% | 2.84% |
According to 1 Wall Street analysts, Alcoa's projected average Quarter EPS for Jul 22 is $2.31, with a low estimate of $2.31 and a high estimate of $2.31. This represents a -8.89% decrease compared to AA previous annual EPS of $2.54 (Mar 22).
AA Forecast FAQ
Is Alcoa a good buy?
No, according to 15 Wall Street analysts, Alcoa (AA) is considered a 'Hold'. The rating consensus is based on 0 'Strong Buy' and 6 'Buy' recommendations, accounting for 40.00% of AA's total ratings.
What is AA's price target?
Alcoa (AA) average price target is $57.33 with a range of $37 to $95, implying a 76.29% from its last price of $32.52. The data is based on 15 Wall Street analysts who provided a twelve-month price target estimate in the last three months.
Will Alcoa stock go up soon?
According to Wall Street analysts' prediction for AA stock, the company can go up by 76.29% (from the last price of $32.52 to the average price target of $57.33), up by 192.13% based on the highest stock price target, and up by 13.78% based on the lowest stock price target.
Can Alcoa stock reach $50?
AA's average twelve months analyst stock price target of $57.33 supports the claim that Alcoa can reach $50 in the near future.
What are Alcoa's analysts' financial forecasts?
Alcoa's analysts financial forecasts for the fiscal year (Dec 2025) are as follows: average revenue is $11.23B (high $11.74B, low $10.91B), average EBITDA is $1.58B (high $1.65B, low $1.53B), average net income is $506.09M (high $535.88M, low $486.93M), average SG&A $234.38M (high $244.99M, low $227.56M), and average EPS is $2.8 (high $2.96, low $2.69). AA's analysts financial forecasts for the fiscal year (Dec 2026) are as follows: average revenue is $11.29B (high $11.8B, low $10.96B), average EBITDA is $1.58B (high $1.65B, low $1.54B), average net income is $684.36M (high $724.65M, low $658.46M), average SG&A $235.52M (high $246.18M, low $228.66M), and average EPS is $3.78 (high $4, low $3.64).
Did the AA's actual financial results beat the analysts' financial forecasts?
Based on Alcoa's last annual report (Dec 2023), the company's revenue was $10.55B, which missed the average analysts forecast of $10.61B by -0.57%. Apple's EBITDA was $277M, missing the average prediction of $2.01B by -86.21%. The company's net income was $-651M, missing the average estimation of $68.15M by -1055.21%. Apple's SG&A was $226M, beating the average forecast of $210.08M by 7.58%. Lastly, the company's EPS was $-3.65, beating the average prediction of $-2.341 by 55.93%. In terms of the last quarterly report (Dec 2023), Alcoa's revenue was $2.6B, beating the average analysts' forecast of $2.59B by 0.21%. The company's EBITDA was $92M, missing the average prediction of $363.09M by -74.66%. Alcoa's net income was $-150M, missing the average estimation of $-153M by -2.12%. The company's SG&A was $64M, beating the average forecast of $54.03M by 18.46%. Lastly, the company's EPS was $-0.84, missing the average prediction of $-0.847 by -0.79%